• by David Goetzl , June 8, 2006

Despite some suggestions that the upfront could be flat to down, investment firm Merrill Lynch maintained its projections of modest volume growth in a report released Wednesday. The report forecast a 4 percent revenue increase to $8.47 billion for the Big 4 networks--the same results projected in mid-May as the networks unveiled their new schedules.

The report also stayed with projections that the overall six-network revenue take--when the fledgling CW and MyNetworkTV are factored in--will be flat compared to 2005 at $9.12 billion.

CBS is expected to do $2.63 billion in business--the most of any network--according to the report. ABC is projected to follow at $2.23 billion, followed by NBC at $1.84 billion and Fox at $1.78 billion. (Fox has seven fewer hours a week to sell than its three counterparts, so its closeness to NBC is striking.) The individual network projections were unchanged from Merrill Lynch's May 17 report.

Fox's projected take would represent a 12 percent gain compared to last year, with ABC posting a 7 percent jump. CBS' expected performance would mark a 1 percent increase, while NBC's would be a 3 percent decline.

Also unchanged--despite some suggestions to the contrary in the market's early-going--were Merrill Lynch's projections regarding CPMs. Projections call for Fox and ABC to derive 4 percent increases, followed by CBS at 3 percent, with NBC flat.

In Wednesday's report, Merrill Lynch also wrote that the sprawling upfront deal between Viacom's MTV Networks and OMD--which includes extensive placement online and on emerging platforms--suggests the Viacom properties could lead the impending cable market. "We believe signing a relatively early deal is a positive indication that Viacom's digital platform could help the company outperform its competitors and the general marketplace," the report said. "Integrated sales (i.e., offline and online) are becoming increasingly important, and Viacom has both the properties and the demographics to be a leader in this area."

Viacom has hinted that up to 8 percent of its upfront take could come from its digital offerings. If that comes to fruition and the trend continues, Merrill Lynch wrote, "Viacom could generate close to $350 million from its new media properties by next year."