• by Lauren Berger , November 28, 2006

At year's end, we decided to brew up a special concoction to accompany our cover story on the trends influencing the future of media in 2007. So we scoured the marketplace for high-end teas (on the expense account, of course), boiled the water, soaked the leaves, and enjoyed a cup or two of jasmine and Earl Grey. But then we realized something: Nobody here knew the first thing about reading tea leaves. So we got on the phone and consulted a few real-world oracles to find out what's in store for media in 2007 and beyond. Some of their predictions were serious, a few were a bit wacky. Herewith, a sampling of our seers' comments.

Compiled by Lauren Berger

What are your media predictions for 2007 and beyond?

"For all the talk, mobile advertising still won't 'happen' in the U.S. in 2007. Local search on mobile devices will make huge strides, but brand dollars, once you take out Fox Entertainment ads on mobile MySpace applications, won't amount to much."

- Chas Edwards, VP Sales & Market Development Federated Media

"Consumers haven't just taken control, they're co-creating brands, markets, services; they're sitting in the marketing directors' seats, figuratively and meta-phorically. I think 2007 is going to have to be the year of listening. Marketers talk a lot. Listening creates advocacy. You have to listen to what consumers are saying ... listen rather than talk."

- Paul Woolmington, Founding Partner, Naked Communications

"Newspapers will finally realize that their business is in a death spiral. They will begin to start planning for the end of the printed version. As other media evolve from audience measurement to measuring 'engagement,' radio will finally start to provide audience measurement that is comparable to other electronic media. ... NBC Universal will merge as the No.1 producer of digital content."

- Lee Doyle, Head of Client Services, MEC

"It will be the year of the consumer star. After a year of creating content, the cream of the consumer crop will rise to the top. We expect to see the most well-known consumer stars on television, in movies, and online. The creative process will be turned on its head; now the goal is to get famous in order to get work, instead of to get work in order to get famous. ... Google/YouTube will be renamed GoogleTube and will start a production company and develop programming for television networks and studios, and one network will schedule a whole Saturday night of mini-videos from people all over the world."

- Alan Cohen, EVP, Managing Director, Initiative Entertainment and Innovation

"There are five spaces that you need to pay attention to next year: The first is social networking on the Web and the question of how are we going to get commercial persuasion into the world of online video. I don't think the answer is pre-roll [video]. The second is in-store media and reaching people outside the home ... it's going to be huge. If mass media isn't going to work, we need to get as close to the purchase decision as possible. Third, we're going to see remarkable progress made in mobile [media]. Fourth, we're going to see a big push in gaming; we'll begin to see the benefits of Microsoft's acquisition of Massive. Sony will finally launch the PlayStation 3. And last, we'll see the results of tests of new television technologies from companies like Invidi, Navic, TiVo, and Visible World. Will these technologies really be able to eliminate waste?"

- David Verklin, CEO, Carat Americas Chairman, Carat Asia-Pacific

"Dreamgirls will win best picture. ... Google will start selling ads on spaceships to the highest bidder. ... Americans will begin watching video by connecting their laptops to their plasma screens. ... Salaries for online buyers with two years of experience will top $60K. ... Media agencies will begin hiring creative directors to help them develop more full-bodied ideas."

- Barry Lowenthal, President/Managing Partner the Media Kitchen

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"Participatory journalism wanes before it ever becomes mainstream, as consumers quickly tire of amateurish reporting and shift their attention to Wiki news sites and blogs where they can pinpoint more reliable information because the posting allowed, while open to anyone who wants to apply, can only be done by those who prequalify as a topical authority.

"On-demand media services chip away at traditional, subscription-based media offerings. Ownership weakens across the board as consumers turn more and more to services that provide them with on-demand, no-strings-attached access to all types of products, especially media. Swapping, bartering, renting, sampling, trading, pay-per-use, and more displace ownership as the chic and smart access style of choice.

"Beyond consumer-generated content, consumers are increasingly invited to be full-scale collaborators and co-creators of ads placed in every type of media vehicle, new and old. To ensure engagement, relevance, trust, and viral impact, agencies and advertisers open creative and strategic development to all consumers interested in participating.

"In-store media grow as a consumer channel. Following Wal-Mart's lead, more retailers recognize the importance of engaging consumers at point-of-sale with electronic media, old and new, and short, entertaining content. Advertainment becomes the programming format of choice."

- J. Walker Smith, Ph.D., President, Yankelovich, inc.

Name an outrageous but possible scenario.

"R/GA's Bob Greenberg is named CEO of Interpublic Group."

- Alan Schulman, Chief Creative Officer, Brand New World

"Content and cable companies will get together and agree on realistic terms that allow for Interactive TV to finally happen."

- Matt Seiler, President PHD U.S.A.

"Disney will buy Apple."

- Lee Doyle, Head of Client Services, MEC

"ContentYahoo buys Viacom. As the world witnesses the steady erosion of mass media, it has become increasingly apparent that those media companies that survive will be those that create deep engagement with a variety of audience segments and will re-aggregate those segments into viable marketing opportunities. ... Yahoo/MSN/AOL/News Corp./Viacom/NBC (pick one) acquires Linden Lab, creator of Second Life, for $2 billion. Sensing the increasing influence of virtual worlds, the acquisition will make the Google/YouTube deal look like the steal of a lifetime.

"The 2007 TV upfront will be down 18 percent, acknowledging a clear shift in the marketplace. Nearly $2 billion leaves the market, held by advertisers in scatter and earmarked for a variety of digital channels. Big winners are top-tier Internet properties and broadband networks."

- David Cohen, EVP, U.S. Director of Digital Communications, Universal McCann Interactive

Any other predictions for 2007 and beyond?

"The rollout of free WiFi continues in the U.S. in 2007. Rumors persist that Google plans to provide free access around the world through GoogleNet, which would allow it to target ads on a geographic basis. But there's better, cheaper way: Launch a Google Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO)."

- Simon Andrews, Chief Strategy Officer, Mindshare Interaction

"2007, thanks to sites like Facebook, social networking, a.k.a. the 'me revolution,' will offer millions more individual consumers the chance to author Web efforts about themselves. They'll be more in control than ever in an environment where they feel safe. This will offer marketers even greater insight into how to market to them. It will also be the year that mobile devices come into their own, delivering everything from movies, sports, and news, as well as the ability to instantly order and buy a huge range of products."

- Howard Draft, CEO Draft FEB

What's the next big merger/acquisition?

"Apple buys EA Games and Netflix. ... Then Disney buys Apple."

- Matt Seiler, President PHD U.S.A

"Wal-Mart acquires eBay."

- Lee Doyle, Head of Client Services MEC

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"My sense is that 2007 will be a year where we will see a bunch of today's hottest technology innovations in media start to jump the shark, or at least mature enough to rein in the unbridled (and sometimes undeserved) mania that deafens us today. Social networking will verticalize and privatize as consumers get weary of too much exposure to too many strangers.

"Video-sharing will gravitate toward higher quality, protectable peer-oriented environments, rather than grainy, low-resolution, copyright-infringing mosh pits. Mobile advertising's march towards reality will stall significantly because of carrier myopia and obstinance. And a broader economic slowdown will hasten the arrival of "Bubble 2.0," which will finally force the weakest technologies and approaches out of the marketplace."

- Tim Hanlon, Senior Vice President-Ventures, Publicis' Denuo