• by Paul Gough , April 13, 2004

Sensing a major opportunity for the first time in two decades, CBS predicted it would overtake the "Friends"-less NBC on Thursday nights and achieve double-digit CPM gains in the upfront.

CBS chief Leslie Moonves staked a claim of leadership in the upfront, a spot generally reserved for perennial ratings leader NBC. But with NBC facing the loss of a key piece of its Thursday prime time and the departure of "Frazier," CBS was poised to take advertising and ratings share away from its competitors, particularly NBC's traditional powerhouse Thursday night lineup.

"The upfront is not about history. It's about the future," Moonves said. "And we are the future."

Moonves predicted that CBS would lead the upfronts in terms of CPM increases, with the other networks only in the mid-to-high single digits. But he acknowledged that NBC would probably come out ahead again in total revenues from the upfront.

CBS comes into the upfront with a pretty strong hand. Its Thursday schedule has matched well against NBC. It not only leads in total household ratings and its preferred demographic--adults ages 25-54--but was also within two-tenths of a ratings point of NBC in the Peacock network's stronghold, adults ages 18-49. CBS is ready to take aim at NBC's upscale viewership too.

"We have the best foundation for a prime time schedule and the best schedule for advertisers right now," Moonves said. "We have prime time leadership across the board and we're feeling very bullish about where we are and what the future of CBS is."

Moonves and top CBS executives took the unusual step of meeting Monday morning with several reporters at the network's Black Rock headquarters to discuss the network's plans for the upfront.

"We wanted to set the table before we get into the upfront season. During this period of time, there's an awful lot of rumor, innuendo--ad agencies saying how bad the business is so they cut a good deal with us, networks overexaggerating how good the business is," Moonves said. "The truth is probably somewhere in between, but probably closer to our point of view this year."

A few years ago, CBS benefited from advertisers shifting "many dollars" from ABC to CBS.

"We think that CBS is going to do well and we're going to take money from some of the other players," Moonves said. "Certainly, that's going to be true on Thursday night, where we think we are going to dominate. We acknowledge the strength of during last year's upfront The Apprentice,' but 'Friends' is 'Friends' and 'ER' is not what it used to be, and we think our Thursday night schedule is getting stronger."

But the jury's still out on the durability of "The Apprentice," which has been renewed for two cycles of 32 episodes for next year. NBC has made its stand on Thursday nights with the strength of "Apprentice," along with a "Friends" spinoff centering on Matt LeBlanc's character Joey.

"That's their hope, but the question is--without the 'Friends' lead-in, how is 'Apprentice' going to work?" said Lyle Schwartz, managing partner/research and marketplace analysis at New York-based Mediaedge:cia North America. "We'll see if it's able to grow as 'American Idol,' or clearly show erosion as most of the reality shows" have done after the first few cycles.

"If that ['Apprentice'] holds up the way it's doing this year, I think it will be a little more difficult for CBS to claim Thursday nights for their own," said Brad Adgate of Horizon Media in New York. Adgate said a larger issue is whether advertisers are going to pay a premium for CBS, which has a higher median age than any other broadcast network even though it has closed the gap in key demographics vs. NBC and Fox.

CBS also has another attribute that it brings up early and often in discussions with advertisers, agencies, and reporters: stability. Tom Weeks, associate director of Starcom Entertainment in Chicago, pointed out that CBS vowed they weren't going to switch too much programming during last year's upfront, and they've held to that.

"CBS' strength is in a stable schedule across the week. What it does--it blends not only the alternative programming or reality that each network is required to have to draw on viewers, but the strength and heritage of developing quality scripted programming that exists as a good place for clients' branded messages," Weeks said.

The network has also been able to develop two bona fide dramatic series hits, "Cold Case" and "Joan of Arcadia." That's something that has eluded most other networks, Weeks said.

Schwartz wasn't enthusiastic about Moonves' predictions for double-digit increases of prime time CPMs.

"I think at double digits, we'll see a lot of money fleeing. It can go to syndication, it can go to cable, it can go to the other broadcast networks" along with other non-TV media, Schwartz said. "There are other options." "There is no question--there are certain things about the upfront that are antiquated," Moonves said. But he also disputed whether some possible changes being bandied about, like a closing bell, would be practical.

"Even if there is a closing bell, people will cheat. There will be deals made," Moonves said.