Trends Influencing Business and Society in 2004 A recent eMarketer report presents information from a team of Senior Analysts who have come together to present 11 trends that will
influence business and society in 2004.
- Ross Rubin reports that because of the mass appeal and low price of digital music, online retailers will have the most success in selling it as a
break-even product or loss leader impulse purchase.
- Steve Butler says IT sales into the small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) is a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
- Ben Macklin finds
that Sony and Microsoft have laid the groundwork for the future, which involves network-connected gaming. Interactive entertainment will become the norm rather than the exception.
Comparative
Estimates of Mobile Gaming Revenues Worldwide ($ in Billions)
| 2003 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| Frost & Sullivan (7/02) | | | | $9.34 |
| Informa Media Group (8/03) | | | 3.78 | |
| The Research Room (7/03) | 1.50 | 2.19 | 4.13 | |
| Wireless World Forum | | 1.93 | | |
Source: Various as noted
- David Hallerman feels that the media attention and industry buzz directed at paid search might sway large traditional advertisers and agencies into seeing it as a
"mere" direct response medium.
US Online Advertising Spending ($ in Billions)
2003 6.9 2004 7.8 2005 8.6 2006 9.3 2007
9.9
Source: eMarketer, December 2003 - Ben Macklin says that the 'big three' portals,AOL, MSN and Yahoo!, will continue to be the online destinations where most Internet users congregate,
but Google IPOs begins to resemble a portal.
- Noah Elkin points out that though foreign investors may remain wary of Latin America's technology markets after their meltdown in 2000, several
intrepid telcos have forged ahead, paving the way for continued growth in Internet access and usage across the region.
- Ben Macklin notes that the Internet evolution from free to fee is not
just a temporary phase that will go away now that online advertising is picking up.
US Consumer Online Content Buyers (millions)
| Online Content Buyers | Internet Users |
| 2002 | 16.3 | 155.0 |
| 2003 | 22.3 | 162.0 |
| 2004 | 28.8 | 168.0 |
| 2005 | 35.8 | 171.4 |
Source: eMarketer, November 2003 - Noah Elkin finds that competition in the Wi-Fi market will remain fierce. Established names, such as Intel, Microsoft and Cisco, will
lead the charge. There are currently approximately 60 Wi-Fi chip startups, and some are already dropping out of the game.
- David Hallerman says bankers are using the Web increasingly to reach
more affluent, educated and loyal customers, and also as a tool to retain existing customers, with services such as online bill payment, mortgages and financial planning.
- Noah Elkin reports
that the North American mobile market will likely be the world hotbed of growth and innovation in the short-to-medium-term, and in many respects will leapfrog a number of the Western European and
Asian markets.
- Ross Rubin points out that last year, 81.2 million Internet users in the US made an online purchase. This number is expected to grow to 86.5 million online buyers in the US by
the end of 2004, spending $72.60 Billion.
Find out more here at eMarketer