• by Wayne Friedman , April 16, 2007

Just in time for the upfront, broadcast ratings erosion is back--across the board.

After three years of relatively stable viewing, 18-49 ratings among the four networks were down 11% to a collective 13.4 versus last year. This data is "live only" season-to-date ratings data through April 8, and it doesn't include the Super Bowl.

In the last four seasons, starting in 2004, the collective ratings among the four networks were 15.3, 15.2, 15.0 and now, 13.4. "That's a pretty steep drop," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate media director at Horizon Media. "That's pretty serious." Network by network, Fox has slipped the least--to a 3.7 among 18-49 viewers, from 3.8 last year. ABC is down to 3.3 from 4.0; CBS has also dropped, to 3.3 from a 3.8; NBC is now at 3.1 from 3.4.

Analysts say the erosion is worst when adding in the CW and MyNetworkTV. Starting in 2004, looking at the collective ratings of WB and UPN, the numbers were: 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, and now, with CW and MNTV, 1.5.

"Where did the viewers go?," asks Adgate. "I don't know. They didn't seem to go to cable, or PBS or pay cable. Those ratings are relatively flat." For example, when looking at ad-supported cable this year, ratings are only up a smidge. "Less than 1%," he says.

Adgate cites three possibilities for the sudden fall: a rise in DVR recording, a drop in multi-set viewing or a rise in Hispanic language networks, which are now part of the Nielsen National Television Index system.

Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president and director of media research for Mediaedge:cia, says adding back in DVR viewership softens the erosion blow. But even when including DVR recording, the pace of ratings erosion has started to quicken, he says.

Other analysts believe that Internet viewing of TV shows has been stealing viewers from prime-time live viewing.

Breaking the numbers down show by show, Adgate says few returning shows have seen a hike in ratings this year. For example, shows such as Fox's "House" and "Bones" and ABC's "America's Funniest Videos" have seen some ratings boosts. But most big network shows like "CSI," "Lost," "Desperate Housewives" and "Law & Order" are down. Perhaps the biggest contributor to the decline has been "American Idol." Through the last couple of seasons, "Idol" was able to increase viewership by at least 10% for the last several seasons. This year, however, "Idol" got off to a more modest start, only up 5%. But in recent weeks, some of the numbers have dropped, versus a year ago.

So far, looking at season-to-date ratings through April 8, averaging all 27 episodes, "Idol" is actually down 7% to an 11.5 now, versus a 12.4 average a year ago. Of course, all that could change in the next several weeks, as "Idol" moves into its key final rounds of the competition.

Overall, with the upfront only weeks away, this news isn't good for anyone involved in TV. Adgate says: "I don't think this benefits the advertisers; I don't think it benefits the media."