• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, May 9, 2007

We here at TV Watch can't decide how to describe the possible move of "Law & Order" from NBC to TNT. Will it be a coup for a cable network to grab the long-running procedural crime drama, or will the move be not much more than taking a network's sloppy seconds?

Time and again over the last two decades, industry observers have looked at the TV business' major turning points in cable programming to decide when the business has come of age.

"The Sopranos" has been great drama, for the most part. But that's HBO. It can get away with anything. Comedy Central's "South Park" has been great because it doesn't really care whom it offends -- even Tom Cruise.

Short of that, cable seems to shoot, at best, a few par rounds. As good as TNT's "The Closer" has been for the network's ratings, grabbing an even bigger franchise, "Law & Order" -- with original episodes -- seems like a major turning point.

Right now the show is on the bubble. Dick Wolf, the show's creator, wants to continue, for pride, and for a certain record with the same intensity of Barry Bonds' -- to become the longest-running continuous TV series ever, hoping to beat out CBS' "Gunsmoke," for a record 21 seasons.

But will those 21 seasons count if one of them runs on TNT? Will Bonds home' run record count if his muscles don't come only from San Francisco sourdough bread? Maybe.

Wolf would need to severely cut the production costs -- lopping off perhaps 50% of the show's $4-million-an-episode price tag -- to make it work for TNT.

Will it be the same show? Through the years Wolf has deftly replaced actors on the show, making sure the brand's name was more valuable than the actors. (The same can't be true for such sitcoms as "Friends."). So, Wolf has a chance.

We eagerly await the end product on TNT, with the true answer being the show's original-episode cable ratings. If "L&O" turns out to amass just standard cable numbers, one would guess the experiment failed. If, however, it turns out to grab similar NBC numbers of recent seasons, then you could really confirm TNT's marketing line: They know drama.