• by Wayne Friedman , June 25, 2007

Cable networks and syndication programmers will try to capitalize on the broadcast networks' gains this upfront--but unlike the broadcasters, they will enjoy a wider range of upfront sales results.

Cable networks will ask for double-digit increases--with the hope of getting anywhere from 5% to 8% on the cost-per-thousand viewers (CPMs). This 5% to 8% range is about what many established cable networks give up when viewers go from watching programs to commercials.

Networks will ask for these hikes because of a strategic shift in inking deals. They are now based on commercial ratings--abandoning the decades-long practice of cutting deals based on program ratings.

For the most part, it will be the older cable networks that will get their intended program price gains, predicts one media executive.

Networks that target older viewers, such as TNT, TBS, A&E, USA Network, Lifetime, Discovery and TLC, says viewers generally stay with programs through commercials. Younger-viewing networks, such as MTV's stable, E! and Oxygen, generally lose more viewers when commercials appear. Cable networks that don't do well in keeping their viewers during commercial breaks could suffer in the upfront process.

"Cable networks that lose 10% or more will have a big problem, because marketers will be hard-pressed to pay double-digit increases to make up for those losses," says one veteran media agency executive. These channels, according to one agency, include networks such as MTV, which loses 12% of its viewers when going to commercials; ESPN Classic, also down 12%; Bravo, 10%; AMC, 10%; WE, 10%; Oxygen, 9% and Versus, 9%.

The better program-to-commercial networks are channels like Nickelodeon, only losing 1% of its viewers; Lifetime, 5%; TV Land, 4%; TBS, 5%; TNT, 6%; USA Network, 6%; A&E, 7%; Discovery, 8%; and TLC, 8%.

Syndication generally doesn't have this problem, as its commercial ratings have been found to be closer to respective program ratings. Still, buyers say there will be wider ranges of pricing when it comes to syndication programming due to general underperforming shows.

Programmers will ask for as much as 10% to 12% or more in CPM increases for daytime talk shows, such as "Oprah Winfrey" and "Dr. Phil," but will probably settle for prices in the 6% to 9% range. Other upper-tier syndication shows, including many magazine shows and some off-net sitcoms, will also command similar daytime pricing hikes.

But lower-tiered syndication programming will probably suffer--grabbing only 2% to 4% increases on CPMs, according to media-buying executives.