Commentary

Just an Online Minute... Rebound Continues

A step behind the rest of the forecasters, CMR today weighed in with its projections for ad spending for 2003. According to CMR/TNS Media Intelligence, ad spending is expected to rise 3.3% in 2003, up to $117.5 billion.

The really good news is that CMR predicts Internet and Cable TV advertising will also show significant gains reflecting a technologically savvy public and the increased viewership for cable and satellite television.

"For 2003, we see a continued rise in ad spending," said Steven J. Fredericks, president and CEO of CMR/TNS Media Intelligence. "The spending growth seen in the last half of 2002 was clear evidence of a market rebound, and we believe the current economic upturn, while not robust, will continue to be reflected in the modest growth of advertising.

CMR/TNS Media Intelligence predicts spending increases in 2003 for all major media, with Spanish language television leading the way, predicted to grow 9.2% from its 2002 total, which closely follows demographic trends and the increasing attention advertisers are paying to the vitality of this market.

Looking at the quarter-by-quarter trends, spending will exhibit stronger growth through the first half of the year, CMR says, due to more favorable year ago comparisons. Lower growth rates are expected as the year progresses into the 3rd and 4th quarters, reflecting comparisons to stronger year ago levels, when the market began to recover and election spending was at a high.

Here’s the breakdown of CMR’s predictions:

GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2003 BY MEDIA

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MEDIA PERCENT ESTIMATE
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NETWORK TV 2.7%
SPOT TV 1.9%
CABLE NETWORK TV 4.8%
SPANISH LANGUAGE TV 9.2%
SYNDICATION 2.5%
CONSUMER/SUNDAY MAGAZINES 2.7%
B2B MAGAZINES 3.6%
NEWSPAPERS (National and Local) 2.6%
RADIO 3.8%
OUTDOOR 3.4%
INTERNET 7.4%
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