• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 1, 2007

What you know is that the immediate effect of a writer's strike will hit all those late-night comedy chatfests -- as well as shows like "Saturday Night Live."  What you don't realize is, the collateral damage will also sideswipe late-night marketers.

Who are we talking about? Those young-skewing marketers like movie studios, home entertainment companies, video game sellers, and no doubt some young-skewing, male-oriented car manufacturers. Think holiday sales of video game "Halo 3," DVD sales of "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," and new theatrical releases such as "Hitman" from Fox or "The Mist" from MGM Distribution Co.

Going into the crucial fourth quarter retail selling period, a number of marketers who use late night shows extensively for their marketing plans will be scrambling to find alternative places.

For viewers, the initial stages will be like rubber-neckers looking at a grisly accident on the L.I.E. --- how will David Letterman, Conan O'Brien, Jay Leno, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert keep up the funny stuff? Remember, death is easy; comedy is hard.

In 1988, the last time there was a writer's strike, you had the likes of Johnny Carson marking time looking at Ed McMahon's family photos. Surely the current batch of late-night hosts will resort to some quirky tricks. Leno will talk about his cars; Letterman will wax on about those ticket-happy state troopers.

After that, low-level boredom will set in, and you'll get a severe drop-off of viewers.

For marketers, this is when a bunch of make-good commercial inventory could kick in - or, heaven forbid, cash back from networks.  Considering the already tight inventory supply on the network airwaves, executives might have to finally go into their coffers and write some checks. 

One can see network's immediately going into re-run and rushed-to-market reality TV show mode, no matter how that affects viewership. 

For prime-time dramas, there will be little immediate effect, since most have a slight backload -- say through the November sweep. But a long-term strike figures to catch up with those shows in January.

There's even a bigger issue at the networks if all this happens: How do you market a TV network on reruns, news-driven magazine shows, or weak-looking reality shows? Of course, that's what the writers are hoping for -- disruption and drama.

Sounds like the making of a great behind-the-scenes TV show.