• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, March 4, 2008

A Wall Street Journal headline told TV's upfront advertising story -- it would be a strong one. But that's just a tease. It doesn't mean a strong TV marketplace -- in, fact, it doesn't really mean anything at all.

This year broadcast networks have seen major erosion of viewers -- 6% to 17% -- creating a supply-and-demand situation where scatter pricing has soared 20% to 40% over upfront prices.

As the old theory goes: a strong scatter means a strong upfront the next year, thanks to a rush of TV advertisers buying up the season beforehand, rather than spreading out the wealth over the course of a year. But we have read this story before.

National TV advertising executives now don't count all their chickens before they are hatched, more cautious now to talk about how they do "at the end of the year." 

As usual, it depends on lots of stuff. What if advertisers -- with a possible oncoming recession -- decide to option out of their upfront commitments? What if the scatter market returns to levels of a season or two ago -- where you could buy network inventory cheaper than you could during the upfront?

Media executives have called it wrong before. Now the chart wavers between hot and cold markets, which are increasingly smashed together and tougher to read. Just look at the instability of the stock market, which can dive 300 points one day, then soar 250 points the next day.

Don't be fooled by the upfront market -- not even with the fact that Turner Broadcasting entertainment networks now wants to play in the same week as the broadcasting networks with their upfront presentations.

The upfronts are about one thing: selling as much TV stuff as possible in the shortest amount of time, convincing advertisers that if they don't buy now, they'll be hurt with higher pricing when they need to get more TV exposure. 

No matter what Turner Broadcasting -- who now champions not only the upfront process, but the broadcast upfront process -- or NBC Universal -- which champions a more subtle upfront approach -- tell you, they will agree perfectly on one point: They all love the upfront money. 

Keep that in mind and everything falls into place: Upfronts are all about selling, not predicting or estimating. NBC is about selling. Turner is about selling. What does all this tell you: that advertisers will spend money on TV shows before the season begins, and during the season. That's all.

The real answer to where the market is going?  Check in by September 2009.