• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, March 6, 2008

C3 has been the new marketplace currency for five months. Data now reveals that for some top shows, the "C" aspect isn't hurting networks--while the "3" is proving to be at least a push, if not a benefit.

Series such as "American Idol," "House" and "Heroes" haven't experienced what some feared: a drop-off in viewers watching commercials when they view the shows via DVRs. In fact, those three series are among a handful where C3 ratings--which measure commercial ratings for a live broadcast and then over the ensuing three days - are higher than the live program ratings.

That means networks (at least for their valuable top hits) aren't losing inventory or rating points to sell with the new currency--when it's juxtaposed with the live program ratings they relied on until October. Even if networks lose commercial viewing during live broadcasts, adding in DVR playback either gives a boost to, or steadies, the C3 ratings.

Some skeptics had suggested that the currency shift would leave networks with less inventory to sell, although that would not necessarily equate to a revenue dropoff--with the national TV market driven largely by supply and demand. And in recent earning reports, both Disney and News Corp. cited current pricing strength for their ABC and Fox networks, respectively.

Buyers and sellers in last year's upfront settled on using a C3 currency as a sort of quid pro quo, where advertisers gained their long-sought commercial ratings, and networks were able to gain the opportunity for compensation for DVR-enabled viewing.

Take "Idol," for example. The average C3 ratings through Feb. 10--the latest data available--show the series' Tuesday airing is averaging an 11.2 in the 18-to-49 demo. That's up from an 11.1 in the traditional live program ratings. "Idol's" Wednesday version goes from a 10.1 up to a 10.2 in C3. "House" also gains, going from a 5.8 in program ratings to a 6.0 in C3, while "Heroes" increases from a 4.4 to a 4.6.

All three shows have heavy DVR recording levels, contributing to those increases as the time-shifted viewing is added in. For dramas such as "House" and "Heroes," when new episodes return following the writers' strike, DVR viewing could increase further, adding more commercial viewing.

Other leading shows with C3 increases include "Family Guy"--a third Fox show benefiting--which goes from a 3.9 to a 4.0; and CBS's "Survivor: China," also up from a 3.9 to a 4.0.

Four other leading dramas are giving networks a "push," meaning the live program ratings are the same as the C3 numbers: "Desperate Housewives" stays at a 6.1, while "Grey's Anatomy" remains at a 5.0. "CSI" holds at a 4.4 in both metrics and "CSI: Miami" at a 3.9. The season-long ratings for those shows are surely lower, due to some strike-induced repeats. ("Desperate Housewives" could prove to be an exception with few encore broadcasts).

Another ABC show that has remained stable is the Monday version of "Dancing with the Stars," where the live program number and C3 are both at a 4.9. "The Simpsons" remains at a 3.8. It's worth noting that one particular show hurt by the strike is NBC's "The Office." It was in the top-10 ratings for all shows in C3, before repeats may have caused its fall. When fresh episodes return, it could regain its momentum, as its audience records it with DVRs at significant levels.

Still, not all top shows are immune from erosion due to commercial ratings. "Two and a Half Men" shows a modest decline from a 4.1 in program ratings to a 4.0 in C3, while NBC's "Law & Order: SVU" similarly drops from a 4.0 to a 3.9.

Other shows with lower rates of DVR recording have larger dropoffs: NBC's Monday "Deal or No Deal" goes from a 4.3 down to a 3.9, and "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" falls from a 4.5 in live program performance to a 4.3 in C3.