• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 4, 2008

The TV upfront dance is on -- and it's a fast one. Grab a partner, try your luck, and don't slip.

Media buyers are doing some fancy footwork -- especially this year, with a scatter market that has seen a rocketing 30% or more in higher prices versus the upfront period of a year ago.

The buyers' side of the story:  Sure, there are high CPMs, but what about overall dollars? There isn't that much inventory around -- at least on the broadcast networks. Will this really translate into a big upfront market?

Buyers will tell you to look at the economy, which has been a daily rollercoaster. All economic indicators -- including a number of low-single-digit percentage increases in advertising market estimates -- would appear to suggest the TV market should have a mediocre business at best this year.

The TV market never takes its immediate cues from the economy -- sometimes it's a harbinger, sometimes it's a Monday morning quarterback. The sales argument is that TV advertisers should spend money when business is good, and should also plop down bucks when things suck.

The bottom line -- should cable or network expect to make big gains in TV advertising this year? Or, should the entire season be given a big, fat writers' asterisk?  Executives will say broadcast networks have recently suffered -- in part due to the writers' strike -- all while cable maintains or improves ratings growth.

But one media buyer, Jason Kanefsky, senior vice president for national broadcast at MPG, had an interesting take. Cable executives have touted the fact that viewer numbers are up when compared with network numbers, which are down. Kanefsky wonders whether cable should have another barometer to be measured against.

With that in mind, perhaps cable isn't up enough. Maybe its programming growth isn't where it should be -- in relation to where it was.

Perhaps cable is not a rocket ship these days -- but more of a first-class, five-hour flight between Los Angeles and New York.

Maybe business-class. Possibly coach -- on Amtrak .