• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 7, 2008

Just four fall shows at NBC? Is that something to complain about?

I'd rather have four well-thought-out shows, rather than 11 half-baked ideas. TV marketers would want the same thing -- and maybe at only modest price increases, as well.

To be fair, while NBC is launching only four in the fall, it'll be launching another four mid-season and others for summer 2009 -- thus its 52-week plan (actually 65, if you count this summer).

This doesn't sound so bad, especially with earlier talk ABC might not be launching any new shows this fall season. Remember, ABC launched nearly a dozen last fall -- so its average would be around six.

Step back and think: Perhaps cable really does have an answer -- in part, anyway. Those networks launch shows when they are ready. And they don't launch many of them.

NBC isn't the only network thinking along these lines. For the last two seasons, CBS has been a modest starter of shows in the fall. And, for year-round stuff, Fox will tell you it has been operating in this mode for some time.

The argument continues to be made that consumer are primed for new TV in September/October. But the fact is, fewer of them are showing up. This leaves networks with a double-whammy: new shows debuting to lower numbers than the shows they replace, and -- to make matters worse -- fewer ratings points with which to market those new shows.

With a decreasing number of ratings points, coupled with the high production prices for programming, networks are forced to think -- and act -- outside the fall-season time box.

The chief complaint for TV traditionalists in launching only four shows is that this isn't enough to change the prospects for a fourth-place network.

But the answer isn't in numbers -- where more new shows may get you an improved success rate for better rated shows.

The answer comes from the new network math. In theory, more time for development should give you better, higher-rated shows.

But no one knows for sure if that makes sense. What if a network, say, spends months working on one show -- and it fails?

I guess, then, the math, didn't work.