• by Masha Geller , June 12, 2003

Today, the online universe is abuzz with IAB's Q4 2002 results, but considering that we're two weeks away from Q3 2003, I thought I'd talk about something more timely.

After yesterday's Minute, where I wondered how long it would take before Instant Messenger spam becomes a real problem, I received a number of responses telling me I've been living under a rock. Apparently, IM spam is already a problem for many users. Be that as it may, email spam, if you believe Enrique Salem, CEO of anti-spam vendor Brightmail, will not be an issue in less than 3 years.

In a silicon.com article today, Salem is quoted saying, "I don't think we will ever see spam disappear altogether I think it will drop so low as to be a non-issue. I expect to see levels of spam falling through 2004, 2005 and by 2006 I expect to see spam levels certainly sub-10%, probably even sub-5% of email traffic." Salem goes on to say that he is not expecting legislation to solve the spam problem, and that the only way to put spammers out of business is to use filtering technology to drive down response rates to illegitimate email so that it becomes unprofitable.

Sounds like a good idea, doesn't it? The problem is, all this talk is a case of too little, too late. The email marketing industry will not survive the next year, let alone the next 3, if spam isn't curbed. For months now, I've been hearing from major marketers who, having spent the last 2 years waiting for email to become a legitimate marketing medium, have now come to the conclusion that they won't be using email at all because spam has killed the golden goose. At the same time, the other day I got a call from someone who wanted to know where he could "buy some email lists" and when I asked what his targeting criteria were, he said, "I have none, I just want email addresses."

I'm beginning to agree with those who say that the only thing that will save email marketing will be a diametric shift in the email paradigm. It has to go from "accept all messages unless blocked" to "block all messages until sender is proven legitimate." That's what companies like Matador, Spam Arrest, Mailblocks and several others are doing now - blocking all email until the sender's identity is confirmed. Unlike filtering, legislation and everything else being talked about out there, it's the only way to put spammers out of business and elevate legitimate email marketers to their rightful place in the inbox.