• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 11, 2008

It seems as if we've been talking about Katie Couric leaving CBS since she first said "This is the CBS Evening News and I'm Katie Couric."

No doubt some story will be right about her leaving. What report should we give credit to?

The possibilities: The one where CBS was going to drop her right after the first few weeks, when curiosity waned? Or, the time when ratings were low and people were attributing that to her casual news stories? Or, the time after the show changed producers?  Or, the moment after the show went back to a more standardized news format? Or, lastly, was it the moment when she questioned in a magazine story her decision to leave "The Today Show" and go to CBS?

Everyone will grab a piece of the credit for sure. Right now, The Wall Street Journal is saying she'll likely leave soon after the presidential election -- and before her contract runs out in 2011.

From a pure ratings point of view, Couric's numbers don't tell a good story - still not even at levels of Bob Schieffer, the interim CBS anchor, who was the bridge between the Dan Rather and Couric eras.

From a journalistic point of view, the reviews are probably a bit better, especially after CBS News went back to straight-ahead news reporting.

Critics have been merciless -- attacking her appearance, speaking style and broadcasting manner. If that wasn't enough the media asserted her show was either too newsy -- or not hard-hitting enough.

Such microscopic investigation into the first woman to solo a broadcast network's evening newscast can only mean trouble.

What's the truth?

Couric brings in about five and a half million viewers a night compared to the other network shows, which bring in about eight million. That's a huge gap -- especially with $480 million in evening broadcast TV news advertising dollars at stake.

Is CBS News losing money? Not yet -- but profitability has declined thus the possible flirtation with sharing some of CNN's resources. CBS has been known to cut when it needs to, and quickly. Look at the dozens of recent layoffs at local CBS New operations.

Les Moonves, president/CEO of CBS Corp., said during a recent appearance in front of Wall Street investors that he still feels great to have Couric at the helm -- even if older male viewers have stopped viewing, a key contributor to the drop in ratings.

Still, he has no regrets. He'd do it again.

Will Couric be leaving? We are absolutely sure of it.

It'll happen one day .