• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 24, 2008

In 10 years from now, the upfront advertising market will still be around. But it may not exactly look the same. Tiny Fey may be hosting a fingernail-biting show on Gawker.com that you might want to buy for your nail polish client.

For media executives, it might not involve going to fancy network parties, or shaking hands with Hugh Laurie or Rainn Wilson, or travelling to those big automotive clients in Orange County, Calif., making sure their creative gets a bunch of "A" commercial positions.

But it will include something resembling television. In the '80s and '90s, it was cable that changed the complexion of the business. Now, the Internet and other technologies vie for their own stage. Despite all this, TV has never been more popular, with viewing at all-time highs. And marketers still come to buy.

Call them lemmings -- that perhaps they should buy more cable, YouTube, digital outdoor billboards, or video networks in urinals. But no one will dispute that both sides of the table want to make buying and selling of TV better -- be it with a Project Canoe, second-by-second TiVo data, passive people meters, or with new electronic buying and selling systems.

It's natural to buy ahead of the next guy, and then relax -- for a minute or so, anyway. Then start the process all over again. Does this mean your marketing dollars aren't working hard? No. You just need better media tools.

Contrary to some theories, every TV program or video probably won't get the same rating. Big scale for popular TV will always be around -- even if it's raucously edgy, gut-busting videos of Jimmy Kimmel or Sarah Silverman having sex with famous movie stars. How you as marketers will seamlessly connect with such stuff is your problem.

Some video will be more popular than cats taking a pee on toilets. People will talk and they'll be some buzz. Then there'll be a rush to buy that Hayden Panettiere girly-drama.

Good entertainment has always been a bit of a gamble. It can drive up CPMs by 15%, and you'll have a market -- up, ahead, or otherwise. And when it fails, you'll rush to the next big thing: TV celebrity pedicures.