• by Erik Sass , July 16, 2008

Total spending on advertising and marketing in the United States will reach $412.4 billion in 2008--an increase of 3.9% or roughly $15.5 billion over 2007, according to a new forecast from Outsell, Inc., a consultancy serving the information industry.

Although the trend is still positive, this forecast--based on the company's survey of 1,088 advertisers--reflects a slowing growth rate in comparison to 2006-2007, when total spending rose 5.8%. Within the total figure, advertising (as opposed to marketing) is expected to grab about $249.1 billion.

What's more, this growth will not be evenly distributed. As in previous years, online advertising and marketing will take the lion's share of the new dollars--growing 12.3% or roughly $11.5 billion to $105.3 billion. This is a milestone, as online spending will surpass TV, radio and movie revenues for the first time. Outsell has the latter pegged at $98.5 billion in 2008.

However, when advertisers' spending on their own Web sites is removed, Outsell calculates online advertising in 2008 will bring in $40.2 billion. Overall, companies will spend 61.8% of their online budgets on their own Web sites, for a total of $65.1 billion. This partly reflects a shortage of online ad inventory, but may also signal dissatisfaction with the advertising and marketing services offered by online publishers.

Indeed, 75% of advertisers ranked their own Web sites as the most effective means of lead generation (ahead of exhibitions at 66%, custom pubs at 65%, and direct mail and trade magazines, both at 64%).

The traditional media remains dominant in terms of market share--with print media expected to attract $147 billion, or 35.5% of the total $412.4 billion. Event marketing will get $51.7 billion, or about 12.5% of the total.