• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 1, 2008

It's the icky Darwinian side of every economic downturn--watching the weaker brands perish just yards away from the watering hole, while vultures and buzzards fill the air.

But observers say it's probably a little too soon to declare a meltdown in the retail sector, despite the recent Chapter 11 filing of Mervyns, the Hayward, Calif.-based chain. Other recent casualties include Steve & Barry's, Linens 'n Things Inc., and the Sharper Image Corp., as well as widespread store closings, such as those announced recently by Starbucks.

Yes, there will be more to come: In its most recent report, the International Council of Shopping Centers predicts that close to 144,000 stores--or about 36,000 per quarter--will bite the dust in 2008. That's a 7% jump from 2007, and the largest increase in 14 years. But the trade group points out that those numbers mask the many stores that will open. For instance, it says, in 2006, 139,000 stores failed--but 123,000 new ones sprung up. Clothing stores, it says, continue to be the most vulnerable, with such chains as Wilson's Leather, Geoffrey Beane-outlet stores, Goody's Family Clothing, Ann Taylor and Talbots among the many retailers that shuttered stores in the first half.

But the retail deathwatch is enough to set tongues wagging about even the strongest brands. Macy's recently had to respond to concerns about its financial health, with the CEO filing a letter with the Securities & Exchange Commission to defend its finances: "Our same-store sales trends are better than J.C. Penney, Kohl's, Dillard's, Nordstrom, Bon-Ton, The Gap and Limited Brands, to name a few," he wrote.

Some experts believe the worst of the shakeout will be restricted to smaller, weaker chains. "Retailers that have a reputation for offering good value, those that have diverse geographic portfolios--both in the U.S. and around the world, and those that offer a broader selection of merchandise are in a better position," says Tony Gao, Ph.D., marketing professor and retail expert at Northeastern University's College of Business Administration in Boston, who points out that Mervyns and several of the other more troubled chains had a strong presence in California, which has been particularly hard-hit by the housing downturn. "And specialty stores tend to file for bankruptcy first."

Among higher-end stores, he says, those with the broadest global presence, as well as access to wealthy U.S. urbanites and international tourists, also have an edge.