• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 7, 2008

It's August--the month when many states offer tax-free shopping periods, millions of parents hope to cross back-to-school shopping off their list, and hordes of teens want to try on just a few more pairs of jeans. Theoretically, malls should be packed--even given the current economic slowdown.

But not only is traffic flat, Americans are changing the kinds of shopping centers they visit. "The shares of monthly shoppers and monthly clothing shoppers continue to decline across most shopping center types," says TNS Retail Forward, a Columbus, Ohio-based consulting company that tracks shopping trends.

"The only locations to capture larger shares of monthly shoppers as well as monthly clothing shoppers in 2008 are power centers," which are strip shopping centers that contain at least one discount department store or category superstore, "or strip malls with supermarket anchors." Online sites also captured a larger share of shoppers.

Retail Forward reports that the popularity of power centers, as well as the rising cost of gas, are making it easier for shoppers to skip more distant shopping destinations, so that all other types of shopping centers are losing customers.

For example, regional malls--which in 2006 had a 34% share of monthly shoppers and a 26% share of monthly clothing shoppers--now have a share of 30% and 23%, respectively. Lifestyle centers, the type of mostly unenclosed shopping areas that typically include specialty stores, department stores, restaurants and entertainment, had 24% of monthly shoppers and an 18% share of monthly clothing shoppers in 2006; this year, it has fallen to 20% and 16%. Downtown shopping areas also declined, from 10% of monthly shoppers and 9% of monthly clothing shoppers in 2006 to 8% and 8% in 2008. Outlet centers held even, with 13% of monthly shoppers and 11% of monthly clothing shoppers.

In recent weeks, the International Council of Shopping Centers reports that while sales tax holidays in 11 states and the District of Columbia helped spur traffic in those areas, "overall national traffic trends were softer which led to a flat weekly performance."

For the month of July, ICSC predicts, comparable-store sales are expected to increase between 2 and 3%. Most retailers will report those results later this week.