• by David Goetzl , September 5, 2008

The TVB's forecast for spot dollars in 2009--a year with no Olympics or federal elections--calls for a decrease, although its projections could have been worse with the troubled economy. Total spot revenues are predicted to drop between 2% and 5% in 2009 versus this year. Then in 2010, dollars will rise enough to make up for--and surpass--the drop, the TVB predicted Thursday.

In 2010, a 6% to 10% rise over 2009 is projected, partly driven by a Winter Olympics in Vancouver that should generate high ratings with a slew of live events.

One thing to watch is how the calculus actually nets out. For example, a 5% fall next year and 6% rise in 2010 would mark only a 1% slight gain compared to this year, a dramatic sign that the local station business may face a cloudy future.

Even with the overall decline projected for next year, the Television Bureau of Advertising, a trade group for the local TV industry, hinted that if all the pieces fall into place--at least the "local spot" part of the business--could experience a slight increase, perhaps up to 2%. The trouble spot will continue to be the "national spot" sector, which has dried up considerably with the auto category cutting spending drastically. Projections there call for a 7% to 10% fall.

In order to combat the national spot slowdown, stations are intensifying their efforts on the local level to attract advertisers in new categories. Law firms are one emerging area of new business.

Separately, TVB said that stations will continue to pull in more dollars in their multi-platform ventures going forward, with their Web sites and wireless gambits growing. Increases for both are slated at 25% or greater in 2009. Still, the total dollars represent a small portion of overall revenues.

The fate of the auto category over the next two years may be the single most important issue facing the station business. Will GM, Ford and Chrysler be able to reverse their fortunes? Even Toyota--a routinely high-spending marketer--has recently had to tinker with its budgets. One plus sign is Honda's recent spending foray.

Other potential hurdles, the TVB said, are those that face just about every other industry: gas prices, the credit crisis and home real-estate market.

TVB's projections come from a combination of research from Wall Street, station rep firms and TVB's own analysis.