• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 2, 2008

Results from the first week of the TV season are in -- and network TV again appears to be on the outs.

Despite the historic performance of NBC's Beijing Summer Olympics -- which achieved record ratings only a few weeks ago, along with congratulations from competitors like CBS' Les Moonves -- TV programmers appear to have hit another pothole in their first corner around the track.

For NBC, this meant a glaring 18% reduction in 18-49 viewers versus that of a year ago. Some of this fallout came from lower results from its highly touted new drama, "Knight Rider." ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" was also off, along with CBS' "Survivor" and even Fox's initial numbers for "House."

Two factors are at play here: consumers who bite less on the big network premieres (especially as networks increasingly scatter those premieres throughout the fall), and the rise of DVRs, where consumers can play network shows at their leisure. DVR penetration is now just under 30% of U.S. TV households.

Future key numbers to look at will be those live plus three days of DVR playback ratings (L3) and the live plus seven days of DVR (L7) to see the complete picture. Also for the first time this season, we'll get some true comparisons of commercial ratings, this being the second year the networks have agreed to use them for TV marketers.

Maybe the writers' strike left some bad tastes in viewers' mouths. Maybe they don't believe the marketing that there is a rush to see all shows.

What about the Olympics, you say? Well, if there is one program genre that is virtually immune from DVR recording technology, it's sporting events. Sure, China was several time zones ahead, forcing lots of events to be taped. But for viewers, there is pressure to see any sporting event as soon as possible -- not days later. Who hasn't stopped an NFL game, even briefly, to make that big double-decker sandwich -- only to catch up during the next commercial break?

But all this doesn't mean bad news for TV overall. Media research group Magna says that for the first week, overall television usage is up 3% or so compared to a year ago. It says this is a good indicator the writers' strike hasn't really affected the TV season.

This may not be a complete picture. Cable usage is up versus broadcast, which is down. Even then, for cable this may be misleading. Not all established cable networks' TV shows are seeing soaring ratings. Perhaps Internet streaming is also a factor.

Disruptions like the writers' strike, as well as poorly executed shows like the Emmys that celebrate TV, may only increase viewer apathy towards traditional viewing habits.