Earlier this week, Jesse Burst of AnchorDesk – www.zdnet.com/anchordesk - said that even though pundits have predicted the web would siphon viewers and advertisers from traditional media, it hasn't
happened yet. But, he wrote, it will soon. "Starting this year, traditional media will feel the pain as advertisers flee to the web," he said, addition that the old media "isn't going to die, but
it is going to get sick."
We could toss that up to yet another pundit prediction and happily enjoy the prognosis of having the advertising media world generate enough news to supply this
column with content indefinitely, but how probable is that in the real world?
Yes, companies are beginning to take a more stringent approach to how much and where they advertise. Yes, people
are embracing the web in record numbers. Yes, many newspaper readers are discovering that they can get much of the content online for free, whenever and wherever they want. And yes, the advertising
dollars will always follow the eyeballs.
But how probable is it that the majority of eyeballs will migrate to new media? Will online continue growing at breakneck speed, garnering more and more
advertising dollars as marketers learn how to use the medium best? Absolutely! But I have too much faith in traditional media companies to believe they won't give up their share of eyeballs and
will figure out a way to deliver the audiences advertisers want.
Of course, the old adage of "never say never," is more applicable in this case than any other, but what about the fact that
online advertising still represents less than 5% of total ad budgets, according to the Association of National Advertisers, and even dot-coms, the driving force behind the recent surge in ad
spending figures, say that traditional media is best at driving traffic to their sites, not online.
The Myers report may have said it best in reporting AdZone Interactive's latest monthly
estimate, which put June 2000 web ad spending at $1.264 billion: "The Internet may be best known for hyper-linking, but it soon could become associated with an over-hyped link to zealous growth
estimates."