• by October 18, 2000

If you're as baffled as I am with all the numbers and predictions this industry throws at us on a daily basis, this week takes the cake.

First, shortly after the DoubleClick and Yahoo earnings numbers came out, Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodget predicted a dramatic slowdown in Internet advertising, causing one fairly respected media publication to imply Blodget is "smoking something."

Conversely, the newest numbers from AdZone Interactive, an advertising research firm that tracks ads on 1,300 websites, yesterday showed that Internet ad expenditures bounced back in September, increasing 13.2% to $1.6 billion after having dropped in August for the first time this year.

Granted, AdZone is the same company that in the recent past has been widely criticized for overly optimistic predictions. Considering the Internet Advertising Bureau places the entire second quarter online ad revenues at just over $2 billion, the AdZone numbers seem just a touch inflated.

But, for comparison, here's a quote from John Cardona, president of AdZone Interactive: "After last month's correction it seems advertising on the web is back to continuing its steady rise."

But enough predictions. How about something real for a change? Yes, some trends are mildly bothersome, such as the recent dot-com pullback in ad spending, which is contributing to a surplus of online advertising space. But before we all panic, let's keep in mind that (a) advertising is a seasonal business and 'summer slow down' is not a new concept, (b) survival of the fittest is very much applicable to the online industry and (c) traditional advertisers are stepping in to fill the ad spending gap left by dead dot-coms.