• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 9, 2009

Depressing TV shows for depressed times: just the place for some national TV advertisers to gain some business -- very specific kinds of commerce.

Though the stock market seems to be showing momentum toward improvement, market analysts, and even one network, doesn't believe it for a second.

Not only are media stock market analysts still pessimistic -- but  broadcast networks are looking to exploit the downturn. Fox, for example, is starting a reality show, "Someone's Gotta Go," which follows a real-life company where a real person will be fired from a real job.

Nice. By the way -- who is going to advertise in this uplifting piece of entertainment?

Two-dollar-burrito makers?  One-dollar-hamburger sellers? Toilet paper manufacturers?  Maybe makers of $40,000 cars? Take a guess.  

At best, if the show is successful, it means lot of out-of-work viewers are commiserating.  But I doubt they have the money to go out and buy much. Success will mean some networks will play copycat and "invest" in the depressed picture of the TV economy -- at least the next 10 months or so.

Two stock market analysts note the modest improvement in media stocks over the last several weeks is actually a faux rally of sorts. Music to TV producers' ears.

With a touch of sarcasm, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in the report "When Reality Hits," "we think the rally will meet resistance once the market realizes that the first-quarter results are below consensus."

Others give the business a little more room -- perhaps to hang itself again. "Enjoy the brief party," Vogel Capital Management president Hal Vogel noted. He added that the rally could extend through the next couple of months.  But, after that, look out: "Then things turn ugly again."

Watching the Fox reality show will dovetail nicely into this sentiment .