In three years, traditional TV will still be consumed "98 times" more than online video -- this from a new Magna forecast of online video. And, as everyone's knows, it's not just in consumption that traditional TV is leading; big brand advertisers aren't spending much with online video.
Forget, for a moment, all that user-generated content big-time traditional TV advertisers are leery about. According to Magna's Brian Weiser, last year American consumed 244 times more traditional TV than all the professionally produced online video. That includes all repurposed video of network TV episodes, as well as original content from those top-flight TV producers.
Online video advertising this year is projected
to be at $699 million, down from recent quicker growth projections. Yet all of these numbers pale in comparison to the $60 billion marketers spent in total U.S. TV advertising last year -- that gives
online video a bit better than 1% of the TV total. Magna estimates online video advertising will climb to $1 billion by 2011.
Other estimates point out YouTube may be around $200 million in advertising next year -- with Hulu around $150 million. These two players could be just about half the entire online video market. This means there is opportunity to be had, perhaps for nontraditional marketers, those advertisers Google focuses on for the Internet's future growth.
We all know what is missing for big time marketers -- standardized video commercial formats, better metrics, perhaps a single currency (like traditional TV) and, according to some media agency executives, improved business practices.
In the coming weeks, the traditional TV upfront will be stirring -- albeit slowly -- with some $19 billion on the line collectively for its big three national TV platforms: broadcast, cable, and syndication.
The big question is, when will online be the fourth musketeer -- and to what extent it will have a real impact on the other three national video platforms?
Cable is only now getting to parity in terms of overall volume with broadcast -- about $7 billion to broadcast's $8.2 billion. Is Internet where the cable TV industry was in 1989? 1999? The fast-moving Internet seemingly has a long, somewhat slow way to go.