• by Wayne Friedman , May 8, 2009

NBC's Jay Leno moving to 10 p.m. could mean greater share of advertising dollars for its competitors -- ABC and CBS -- but not more ad dollars.

According to TNS Media Intelligence estimates, next year could see a 4% drop in total 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. TV advertising spending for 18-49 viewers from October 2009 to March 2010, to $892.5 million. TNS calculates that this season, the 10 p.m. hour time-period advertising total came to $932.8 million.

CBS, which had the biggest share of the three networks at 10 p.m. this year at 38.4%, could move up to just under a 39.9% share. But TNS says its total dollars could drop slightly to $356.3 million from $358.5. ABC will slip as well, but NBC would drop the most.

In its estimates, TNS assumed that there would be modest broadcast rating erosion of 4% -- a 10% decline in 18-48 rating points for NBC (because of the Leno move to 10 p.m.) -- and no change in CPMs for the period.

TNS based its estimates on the assumption that two-thirds of NBC's viewers would shift about equally to both ABC and CBS, with the other one-third going to cable networks.

During an earnings call with analysts on Thursday, CBS President and CEO Les Moonves noted that CBS' 38% share of the 10 p.m. business could move to 45%, or even 47%, because of Leno's move.

But Jon Swallen, senior vice president of research of TNS Media Intelligence, says this would be unlikely. "There would have to be some significant changes in pricing -- a combination of higher CPMs at CBS and lower CPMs at NBC and ABC -- for CBS to get to a 45% share of the time period ad revenue."

Looking at the data, CBS' share of ad revenue equaled its share of the available rating points. ABC's revenue share was larger than its share of gross ratings points. But NBC's GRPs were higher than its ad dollars.

All this suggests ABC has been selling its 10 p.m. inventory at a premium (for the likes of "Private Practice," for example) while NBC sold its 10 p.m. shows at a relative discount. CBS was in the middle.

 

	Monday-Friday 10-11pm: Oct 2008-Mar 2009
	Ad Revenue			A18-49 Rtg (C3)
	$millions	% of $		Avg Rtg	% of GRPs
ABC	315.7	33.8%		2.22	30.7%
CBS	358.5	38.4%		2.78	38.5%
NBC	258.6	27.7%		2.23	30.8%
Total	932.8	100.0%		7.23	100.0%

 

PROJECTION
	Monday-Friday 10-11pm: Oct 2009-Mar 2010
	Ad Revenue			A18-49 Rtg (C3)
	$ millions	% of $		Avg Rtg	% of GRPs
ABC	312.1	35.0%		2.19	31.9%
CBS	356.3	39.9%		2.75	40.1%
NBC	224.1	25.1%		1.93	28.0%
Total	892.5	100.0%		6.87	100.0%
Assumptions:
4% erosion in network ratings
A further 10% decline in NBC ratings for Leno program
Two-thirds of the ex-NBC viewers shift to ABC and CBS
No change in CPMs