Commentary

TV's Upfront Flexibility: Not Only For TV Buyers

Flexibility is a growing drumbeat from TV media buyers in this upfront market. Media executives are looking at a number of ways to get it, which could include "rolling options" -- basically, a month-to-month review of deals made previously in the upfront.

Want to keep your upfront media plan for November? You'll need to give four week notice by the beginning of October. Then you might do it again in December, in January, and so on.

This would operate kind of like local TV, which has typically worked on four- to six-week cancellation periods. It is just one new upfront element media buying executives have been tossing around.

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If media buyers are serious about coming and going as they please, it would dramatically alter the way marketers make deals with TV sellers. But there are downsides for everyone.

TV networks could be selling essentially all year round, with fewer clues for estimating current marketplace conditions. For marketers, it could mean paying higher premiums on shows, with perhaps no -- or limited -- viewer guarantees. Movie media plans typically play with these tools.

Major TV  advertising executives  -- from ABC's Mike Shaw to Fox's Jon Nesvig -- have long said they are open for business year-round. But in between these messages is an underlying subtext:"it depends what prices, inventory and other considerations  the market will bear."

Some big consumer product marketers, like Unilever and Johnson & Johnson, have been trying to get ahead of the curve, even if there is some short-term pain. These companies have been focusing more on calendar-year deals, branded entertainment extensions, and new digital arrangements, all of which means year-round planning and buying.

This marketplace is also complicated by other elements like a still-weak economy and subsequent marketing cutbacks by some companies, as well the prospect of price rollbacks on TV programming -- anywhere from 2% to 7%.

This has every TV marketer -- big and small -- licking their lips, since markets like these don't happen too often. But they should be careful what they wish for, since both buying and selling executives can make loud drum noises.

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