• by Karl Greenberg , May 29, 2009

As Chrysler completes its bankruptcy dealings and General Motors heads that way, Edmunds.com is predicting that May new vehicle sales will drop over 36% from the month last year. Still, the firm says there is good news as opposed to that dreadful April.

Per Edmunds, sales will improve 8.9% this month versus last. Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for the firm, sees consumer demand returning, "but it is still far below last year's levels." On the other hand, the month has seen far fewer sales to rental fleets, he says, "particularly for Chrysler, who closed down production on May 1."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for the domestics will be 43.9% down from 45.3% in the month last year, and down from 46.6% last month, Edmunds says.

The firm says consumer confidence rose in May by the most in six years, placing it at last September's levels. Edmunds.com predicts that Chrysler will sell 68,000 units in May 2009, down 53.9% compared to May 2008; Ford will sell 153,000 units in May 2009, down 28.5% versus May 2008 but up 15.5 % from April this year -- giving Ford a new car market share of 17.2% in May, up from 15.3% last year and even with Toyota's own May market share.

Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.2% in May 2009 -- down from 18.5% in May 2008, but up from 15.5% in April 2009.

Edmunds.com sees GM dropping 36.9% versus the month last year; Honda down 39.3% from May 2008 but up 1.0% from April 2009; Nissan with a 35.1% drop and Toyota losing 40.6% versus May 2008 but up 20.8% from April 2009.

Hyundai is on track to suffer least, with 63,000 units in May -- down 18.4% from the month last year and up 6.2% from April 2009. Edmunds says, however, that Hyundai's market share -- if it is 7.1%, as it predicts -- will be down from 7.3% from last month.