Commentary

Cautious Optimism For The Economy Ahead

Results of the latest Harris Poll of 2,498 U.S. adults surveyed online show that there is a slight sense of optimism regarding the economy. 46% of Americans believe the economy will improve in the coming year, while 32% say it will stay the same and 22% believe it will get worse. In May, just under two in five believed the economy would improve in the coming year while over one-quarter said they thought it would get worse.

Expectations Of The Economy In One Year (Base: All Adults, % Of Respondents)

 

April

May

Aug.

Improve

39%

38

46

Stay the same

35

35

32

Get worse

26

27

22

Source: Harris Poll, August 2009

One-quarter of Americans believe that their household financial condition will be better in six months while half say it will remain the same and 28% believe it will get worse. the 28% who say their household's financial condition will get worse in the next six months is the lowest number who believes that since this question was first asked in February of 2008.

Anticipated Households' Financial Conditions In 6 Months (Base: All Adults, Percent Of Respondents By Category)

Region

Total

East

Midwest

South

West

Better (Net)

24%

23

19

27

26

Much better

5

5

4

5

5

   Somewhat better

20

18

15

22

21

   Remain the same

48

53

51

46

44

Worse (Net)

28

24

30

27

30

   Somewhat worse

22

19

24

21

24

   Much worse

6

5

6

6

6

Source: Harris Poll, August 2009

Three in five Americans say they are not concerned that the main income earner might become unemployed in the next six months while 39% are concerned. However, 71% of Americans rate the current job market of their region of the country as bad, with just 8% saying it is good. This is almost unchanged from June when 72% said the current job market was bad and 9% said it was good.

Concern Over Becoming Unemployed (Base: All adults, % of Respondents)

 

April 2009

June 2009

Aug. 2009

Concerned (Net)

43%

42

39

   Very concerned

17

16

14

   Somewhat concerned

26

27

25

Not Concerned (Net)

57

58

61

   Not very concerned

26

27

28

   Not at all concerned

31

31

32

Source: Harris Poll, August 2009

Looking ahead six months, one-quarter of Americans (25%) say that the job market in their region will be worse in that time, 28% say it will be better and almost half (47%) believe it will remain the same. Here people are a little optimistic as in June, just one in five (21%) believed the job market in their region would be better in six months while almost one-third (32%) said it will be worse.

Expectations For Job Market In Six Months  (Base: All adults, % of Respondents)

 

Jan. 2009

April 2009

June 2009

Aug. 2009

Better (Net)

15%

23

21

28

   Much better

1

3

2

2

   Somewhat better

14

20

19

26

   Remain the same

36

42

47

47

Worse (Net)

49

36

32

25

   Somewhat worse

36

29

24

19

   Much worse

14

7

8

6

Source: Harris Poll, August 2009

The report concludes that "People are currently feeling cautiously optimistic on the economy, but until they feel strong, Americans are not likely to be opening up their wallets and spending again... needed to really help spur the economy along."

Please visit Harris Interactive here for more information.

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