TVB Predicts Spot, National Revs Rising in 2010

Chris Rohrs of TVB

With 2010 offering a Winter Olympics and slew of competitive political races, the Television Bureau of Advertising projects that total spot dollars will rise between 3.6% and 6.1% next year.

Local spot revenues are forecast to rise between 1% and 3%, the TVB said, with national spot dollars up 6% to 12%.

Dollars generated from station Web sites are projected to increase 18%. And fledgling mobile businesses would bring a 50% increase, the TVB said at its annual forecast conference.

With a run of Senate seats up next year and governors' races in 36 states -- including California and Florida, which could each generate a windfall for stations -- political dollars should surge. A wild card comes in with whether the auto category continues to decline dramatically, or at least begins to shift toward neutral.

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"The key categories to watch in 2010 will be automotive and political," said TVB President Chris Rohrs.

Other factors that could move the needle are the job and housing markets and consumer confidence. Also unclear is how much advertisers will continue to shift dollars to the Internet.

The Olympics should help NBC affiliates and the network's owned stations, since its Vancouver location could bring events such as figure skating broadcast live in prime time.

The TVB's 2010 estimates come from "a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station (rep) firms and independent TVB research."

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