• by Karl Greenberg , October 31, 2009

Chicago-based market research firm Mintel, in its Global Market Navigator (GMN), predicts that swine flu may have an upside -- at least in terms of over-the-counter (OTC) sales of cough and throat remedies.

The firm predicts that Americans will spend $3.6 billion on cold, cough and throat remedies this year, 1.7% more than during 2008. In Britain, people will spend £428 million by year's end, a 4.2% increase over 2008.

Diana Nhan, senior market analyst for Mintel GMN, said the U.S. cold, cough and throat remedy market saw a 13.4% spike in sales in 2005, when the avian flu dominated media stories. "Already, swine flu has received equivalent media exposure, and many Americans are worried about the virus," she says. "I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar trend-busting increase in U.S. cold, cough and throat remedy sales for 2009 and the early part of 2010."

Mintel estimates that Americans will spend over $32 billion on all OTC pharmaceuticals this year, while Britons will dedicate £2.6 billion toward alleviating symptoms. The Chinese are expected to spend more than ¥58 billion, while Russians will spend $3.4 billion. Mintel GMN also expects all four countries to see sales increases for OTC medication in 2010.

Mintel reports that in the U.S., OTC medicine sales account for 0.22% of GDP, compared to 0.20% in Russia and approximately 0.17% in the UK and China.

In a study earlier this year, Mintel said that the OTC cold, cough and sore-throat segment would also benefit from the recession, because consumers are self-helping at the OTC aisle instead of seeing a doctor.

The leader of the segment is Johnson & Johnson and subsidiary McNeil, with a combined $984 million in sales and 21.8% share. Much of this can be attributed to the success of allergy drugs Zyrtec and Benadryl, according to Mintel, which reports that the company's Tylenol and Sudafed brands, "accounting for a large part of the market, experienced limited success between 2006 and 2008."

Reckitt Benckiser's Mucinex tablet remedy, which had $148 million in sales in 2008, leads the market, also per Mintel. It is followed by Cadbury Adams' Halls cough drop franchise. "Much of Mucinex's success is due to extensive marketing, although its single-symptom cough relief is also a selling point, as a growing number of remedy users desire symptom-specific relief," says the research firm.

The market's drivers are not only the incidence of cold and flu -- especially among children, the elderly and women -- but the low rate of health insurance coverage in America, Mintel adds.

But those conditions may also turn people to homeopathic treatments. Mintel cites The American Association of Homeopathic Pharmacists data from 2008 in Drug Store News showing that sales of homeopathic remedies increased by 17% to 20% between 2004 and 2008, to reach annual sales of $600 million. However, sales of natural product cold/flu remedies through supermarkets have decreased slightly between 2007 and 2009, from $59.4 million to $58.2 million, the researcher reports.