• by Wayne Friedman , December 22, 2009

TV stations will resume some advertising growth in 2010 -- but it will take years to get back to pre-recession levels.

BIA/Kelsey, a financial advisor to local media companies, estimates that TV stations' ad revenues will rise 3% in 2010 -- or $500 million -- to $16.1 billion. BIA estimates by 2013, stations will only inch forward to $16.4 billion; however, it notes that TV stations have not been at such levels since the mid-1990s.

The media group now says 2009 will end at $15.6 billion, down 22.4% from last year's $20.1 billion mark. TV stations reached an all-time ad revenue record in 2006, when it was at $22.8 billion.

BIA says 2011 will see negative growth again -- in part because it is a non-Olympic, non-political year. The market will shrink $200 million, landing TV stations at $15.9 billion.

The next year -- 2012, a big Olympics and political year -- will see the market grow a sizable $900 million to $16.8 billion. But in 2013, another non-Olympic, non-political year, the market will again contract to $16.4 billion.

BIA says local Internet advertising revenue for TV stations will be $518 million this year, a 12% increase over 2008. Internet sales for local TV stations will steadily rise to over $1 billion in 2013.

Virtually all TV markets had down years in 2009, and many will struggle in 2010. But a couple will manage some meaningful improvements, thanks to local political advertising.

These markets include: Philadelphia, up 6.5%; Pittsburgh, 5% or higher; Las Vegas, 5% gain; and Chicago, St. Louis and Hartford-New Haven, all expected to have 4.5% increases in 2010.