Well, frankly, while I no doubt realize that 2010 will bring numerous evolutionary changes to the Hispanic advertising and media world, I believe 2011 will result in far more disruptive and revolutionary change. Why?
First, Hispanic marketing trends usually follow trends in the general market. While these changes historically lag by three to five years, media and marketing technology have shortened that gap to one to three years. So the transformational changes that have affected mainstream advertising and media will bear their full brunt on our industry by 2011.
In addition, by the end of 2010, U.S. Hispanic Internet penetration is on pace to reach almost 70%, once and for all ending the debate about whether the Internet is a Hispanic mass marketing medium.
Finally, the 2010 Census results will be out in early 2011 and will no doubt bring increased attention to the Hispanic market because the numbers will be big. This attention will not all be good, as I addressed in a blog a few months back, because in addition to more advertiser activity, it will translate into more competition from general market agencies attempting to service the market.
Erosion of Spanish TV's Prominence Although Spanish-language TV has managed to avoid the fate of its general market counterparts, trends such as online video (note the popularity of novelas on YouTube), the trend toward "on-demand" and DVR time-adjusted consumption will eventually impact Spanish TV. More importantly, the value of the big two's (Univision and Telemundo) content will begin to be "crowded out" by competition from cable, mobile and Internet video options and cheaper access to home country content on all three of the aforementioned platforms.
Polarization of the Hispanic Acculturation Model Most Hispanic marketing strategies are built on the foundation of the familiar three-part Hispanic acculturation model (unacculturated, partially acculturated and acculturated). While this model will continue to be valid, it will become increasingly polarized as the differences among the three segments increase, particularly in relation to demographics and media preference. The coming "tsunami" of U.S.-born young Hispanics (in 10 years, 62% of all teens will be Hispanic) will only exacerbate the differences that will exist among the various segments.
Shift in Emphasis from Traditional to Digital Channels Ultimately, clients make the decision as to where budgets are spent, and their increasing preference to go digital in the general market will carry over to their Hispanic advertising efforts. I'm already starting to see Hispanic digital reviews, especially as clients focus on targeting specific Hispanic segments, trading reach for deeper engagement. Hispanic direct response activity will also migrate to the Web, particularly as Hispanic digital performance channels eat away at traditional options (DRTV, direct mail, etc.).
Mobile Marketing Although mobile marketing's arrival has been prematurely announced for the last five years, its undeniable growth in 2010 will finally reveal the full potential for using mobile to reach Hispanics in 2011. In fact, mobile will likely start to replace local print media consumption (newspaper readership), and opportunities with couponing, QR codes and apps will make Hispanic mobile marketing the fastest growing segment in Hispanic media by the end of 2011.
The "Second Offensive" of the General Market Agencies As mentioned above, the 2010 Census results will help drive a new wave of interest in Hispanic advertising, both among marketers and general market ad agencies looking to continue to grow. Just like the lines between traditional and digital agencies were beginning to blur in 2009, by 2011 the lines between general market and multicultural marketing will become hazy, much to the dismay of specialist Hispanic shops.
Social Media Takes Center Stage To borrow a phrase from Adweek, social media will "be like air" and a part of all things advertising. This will be the case in Hispanic advertising, as the over-indexing of Hispanics on social media should provide the "writing on the wall." However, like in the general market, clients will start to take social media programs "in-house," especially those focused on creating and managing communities.
Other Hispanic Media Will Experience Differing Fates While Hispanic TV and print will suffer as a result of trends toward digital, radio and OOH have an opportunity to emerge stronger than ever and evolve with changes in technology.
Arrival of New Media Platforms Once gaming companies (gaming networks, online games, game developers, etc.) adopt more sophisticated demographic tracking capabilities, they will introduce a promising new media channel to reach Hispanic gamers of all ages and types. GPS-enabled marketing, which should come of age in mainstream marketing in 2010, will be poised to open new doors to reaching Hispanics in 2011.
People will Talk about the "Good Old Days" of 2008 and before As with the general market advertising industry, overall ad spending will take a long time to return to its pre-recession peaks. In the case of Hispanic media spending, those 2008 numbers won't be seen again for a long time.