• by Wayne Friedman , January 8, 2010

Should NBC bring back Jay Leno to his long-held 11:35 p.m. time slot, they will have some explaining to do to viewers -- dramatically changing his marketing message.

For the better part of last summer, NBC launched a massive campaign telling viewers that Jay Leno was moving to the 10 p.m. time slot. Now, all that could drastically change.

What could this new marketing message be? "Jay Leno is back where you love him," says Bill Carroll, vice president and director of programming for TV stations sales rep Katz Television Group.

News reports on Thursday from Web site TMZ.com, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal revealed that NBC -- under pressure from network affiliates -- has a plan in place where Jay Leno would return to 11:35 p.m., but as a half-hour show.

"The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" would then move from 12:05 a.m. and "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" would start at 1:05 a.m. NBC would resume programming the 10 p.m. hour with scripted dramas, reality shows and news programming, all to hopefully lift ratings of struggling NBC affiliates' newscasts.

While NBC's move seems impulsive -- the "Leno" show is only 4 months old, and O'Brien in the "Tonight Show" host role is a mere seven months -- program analysts say it makes sense, at least in the short term.

The key is NBC's Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

First, the Winter Olympics to be aired in February takes two weeks' worth of original programming out of NBC's prime-time lineup. That allows NBC a breather, while it looks to ramp up new programming for 10 p.m.

After that, Carroll says, NBC would only need eight to 10 weeks of original programming -- mostly in March and the key May sweeps period -- to fill out its schedule for the rest of the year.

But the bigger piece of NBC's seemingly rushed plan to get Leno back to his late-night time slot is the rare marketing opportunity that the Olympics brings, says Carroll.

The Olympic broadcast throws off huge prime-time ratings, as well as big marketing and media potential for the promotion of new shows. (It also impacts TV advertisers.) If NBC doesn't move now with "Leno," it will have to wait for the summer -- or perhaps another big event -- for a major marketing campaign.

Media analysts estimate that NBC could put the "Law & Order" franchise back -- both the original and the "SVU" show -- to their more comfortable 10 p.m. time periods. Adding in two "Datelines" at 10 p.m., and Carroll says NBC has temporarily solved the problem for four of the five nights that Leno occupied.

Before news of the "Leno" move surfaced, NBC announced it was committing to a big order of 18 pilots for next year because executives said they had a lot of holes to fill. (The order was not seen as a possible departure of Leno from the 10 p.m. time slot.)

"The Jay Leno Show" posted an average 1.7 rating among 18-49 viewers. NBC's 10 p.m. time periods suffered 50% declines in viewership -- time-shifting was lower for "Leno" -- and NBC stations did see 15% to 20% rating reductions in their late newscasts.

But NBC may have misfired when considering O'Brien ratings, which suffered among 18-49 viewers, coming in much lower than Leno's. (O'Brien, however, has had greatly improved younger viewership.)

If NBC goes ahead with its changing lineup, Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research of Group M, says they might regret some recent moves. "They got rid of "Southland" too soon," he notes. "Southland" moved to cable network TNT after NBC decided there was a limited ratings upside to the critics' favorite drama.

In addition to the "Law & Order" shows, Breslow expects NBC to rush drama "Parenthood" and reality series "The Marriage Ref" to the schedule.

What will Leno's new ratings look like?

"Best-case scenario, he goes back to what he was doing prior to his prime-time stint. Worst-case scenario, the audience has moved on to "Letterman" and "Nightline," and he flops," says David Scardino, entertainment specialist for Santa Monica, Calif.-based media agency RPA Inc.

He adds: "This would be a very tough one to predict, but I suppose at a first glance, I would put him in a bit below what he averaged at 11:35."