Under the newly established media practice of treating smartphone launches like blockbuster movie premieres, the debut of the Nexus One would have to be considered
a flop. With 20,000 units sold in its first week, according to a new estimate from mobile
analytics provider Flurry, Google's own phone was outsold by the Android-based myTouch by three times, the Droid more than 12 times, and the iPhone 3 GS 80 times in the same period. So much for the
latest iPhone killer.
But as Flurry points out, its hard to make apples-to-apples comparisons between the Nexus One and prior smartphone launches. It should probably be viewed more as a
highly-touted independent film than a summer tentpole release.
Factors setting it apart were Google's new direct-to-consumer model for selling the phone, its online-only soft launch for the
Nexus One in contrast to the Droid's $100 million marketing blitz, its high no-contract price of $529, and its launch after the all-important holiday season. With the unorthodox Google approach has
taken to launch and sell the Nexus One, it would be hard pressed to match the first-week sales of more traditionally packaged new phones.
According to Om Malik, Google's mobile guru Andy Rubin set fairly modest expectations overall for the phone, looking to sell 150,000--enough to seed
broader demand among smartphone buyers. Of course, he may have low-balled the estimate so anything about that figure appeared to exceed expectations.
But if in the coming weeks or months the
Nexus One fails to gain momentum and sales stall, Google may have to rethink its strategy in terms of promotion, pricing or distribution. The device itself is widely considered at least the best
Android phone to date, so any changes there will likely be incremental.
At the same time, if Google does revert to more conventional means for selling the Nexus One or subsequent models, it
will fall short of expectations for shaking up the mobile industry's balance of power with a directly sold, unlocked phone. It will be just another Android phone. In short, it's hard to produce a
blockbuster and a groundbreaking work all at once.