NBC should have a Plan B in place now that Conan O'Brien has rejected the network's idea to move "The Tonight Show" to 12:05 a.m. Not a Plan B about programming, but
marketing.
Over seven months ago, it began to tell viewers the long-term view of its late evening schedule would consist of Leno at 10 p.m. and O'Brien at 11:35 p.m. What will
NBC now tell its viewers about its late-night schedule?
In a press release,
O'Brien says he no longer wants to host NBC's "The Tonight
Show" and intends to seek a way to end his contract with the network. Bets are on that should the O'Brien decision stick, Jay Leno will be back as full-time host of "The Tonight
Show."
O'Brien doesn't have many choices other than to look for the
millions of dollars in penalties his lawyer hopefully made airtight in his contract.
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He has no other deal -- and probably won't have one for a while. It's not as if Fox -- or
another network -- can instantly give him a show and quickly take away its TV affiliates' late-night time periods. It doesn't work that way.
As Kevin Reilly, president of Fox
Entertainment said, Fox stations already have programming committed from syndicators and other sources for months, if not years. But Reilly also believes O'Brien would be a perfect fit with Fox
because he grabs many young viewers -- a demo that's been a hallmark of the Fox brand.
The rub for O'Brien is that NBC affiliates need an immediate solution to their problem --
which, ironically, doesn't really have anything to do with his show, but more with Jay Leno running at 10 p.m. as a lead-in to local TV newscasts.
NBC should have made an easier
decision. Instead of looking to hoard talent -- first by extending late night into prime time (with Leno), and more recently by planning to shoehorn three late-night shows into essentially two time
slots (including "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon) -- it should simply have canceled Leno.
This wasn't because of Leno's ratings, which came in about expected -- but
because of the lower than anticipated ratings of local affiliate late newscasts. That was the Leno show's responsibility, not O'Brien's.
NBC's business partners - its
affiliates -- want immediate action. Immediate action means weeks - not months (or even a year). The
bottom line: All this will probably cost NBC a lot of money -- a bad side effect of Plan B.
Without a big change, NBC will have 200 some-odd little rebellions around the country of its TV
affiliates. That's the penalty of making drastic -- some would say crazy --- decision of putting Leno at 10 p.m.
Without a move, there might be mass preemptions - and not just in
Boston, where a year ago, the rebel station NBC station affiliate threatened to pre-empt "Jay Leno" in prime time.
NBC has messed around with late-night talent before -- most
times badly. In the early '90s the network had a deal with David Letterman to take over "The Tonight Show" -- but only after a brief, supposedly temporary run for Leno as host. Letterman
rejected this.
From a historical perspective, Letterman didn't want to be the next "Tonight" host following Leno's stint, but to be the direct descendent of Johnny Carson.
Even more important, Letterman (and others) believed NBC was hedging its bets -- if Leno was successful, the network would still have Letterman doing his "Late Night" show. Hoarding talent,
again.
Now you don't have to wonder why Carson announced his retirement -- on stage at the upfronts in the early '90s -- without giving NBC executives any notice. He had control and
used it.
O'Brien is not going quietly -- but he doesn't have the same clout.
In the age of giant media companies, with business dramatically changing in ever quicker
intervals, talent rarely has the upper hand. But viewers do. They are quick to forget, and always looking for the next thing.
TV marketers can try and change viewer perception --
but it has become increasingly harder. Their biggest problem isn't how to construct a message or how to place media on their own airwaves or though paid efforts (radio, outdoor, or digital, for
example). Instead, they need to handle the growing digital buzz that can wildly swing positive or negative sentiment over entertainment properties.
NBC has its work cut out for it -- not
just finding the right combination of late-night programs and talent, but making savvy marketing explanations to its viewers.