• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, December 23, 2025

Will the slowing of TV set sales affect connected TV (CTV) business -- including new TV operating systems on smart TVs?

Let's take another look.

In the second quarter of this year, global TV shipments hit their biggest snag of the year so far -- down 2.1% year-over-year, according to data from technology researcher Omdia.

The full-year 2025 forecast puts global shipments at around 208.7 million units -- essentially flat versus the previous year and down 0.1% year-over-year. Shipments in the U.S. would fare only slightly better -- estimated to rise 1.6% to 49.9 million units.

This flattening of the market has major effects -- especially on companies building smart TV operating systems: Samsung’s Tizen, LG webOS, Roku OS, Amazon Fire TV OS, Google TV OS. All are hoping to expand their install base and reach.

Slumping TV set-sale activity means trying to monetize revenue via higher-priced home-screen advertising and data licensing, as well as TV manufacturers' increasing reliance on FAST channels -- free subscription/streaming and fully ad-supported television.

Increasingly, these platforms tend to focus on rising ARPU -- average revenue per user.

With regard to FAST channels, analysts say maturing or declining TV set sales can have a direct negative impact on cost-per-thousand (CPM) prices on FAST platforms.

According to estimates, CTV ad growth could slow to single-digit percentage from current double-digits.

Premium streamers may also move more aggressively to bundling.

This news affects the broader business of media overall (mobile, social, retail media and other areas) -- with greater focus on software, data and advertising, and less tied to hardware trends.

Is there any hope? One area that still shows growth is shipments of TV sets 80 inches and larger -- expected to rise from to over 13 million units by 2029 from around 9 million units in 2025, amounting to a 44% increase over four years.

So what does that mean? Would living rooms need to be bigger? New home construction could be necessary -- as well as tools and supplies from Home Depot and Lowe’s.

But not everyone will view things this way.

This column was previously published in TV Watch on November 28, 2025.