• by Wayne Friedman , January 15, 2010

In five years, network programmers will be subjected to the changing effects of nearly one in two homes with DVRs. The new "On Demand" report from Mediabrands' Magna says that in 2015, 44% of all TV homes will have DVR technology.

Magna estimates this will come to 53 million homes, up from 33 million DVR homes or 29% of all U.S. TV households at the end of the third quarter of 2009.

Overall, Magna is cautious about what this means for the TV and advertising business as a whole.

In a report, Brian Wieser, director of global forecasting for Magna, writes: "We note that the aggregated impact of DVRs will likely continue to be outpaced by a rising population and increases in consumption of conventional TV."

Also in five years, Video On Demand programming will reach nearly 66 million households -- about 54% of TV homes. This would add just under 20 million homes, or 14 percentage points, from its 45.7 million and 40% of TV home 2009 levels.

Broadband access will grow by about the same number of homes during the period, to 89.6 million from 71.6 million homes (61% of the country's 117 million homes) in 2009.

Looking at some of the major providers of DVR machines and technology, Magna says DirecTV now has 7.4 million DVRs and Dish Network, 7.0 million.

Comcast is at 5 million DVR subscribers, with nearly 21% of the company's total subscriber base. Time Warner has 4.3 million DVR homes, with 33% of the company's subscribers.