• by Wayne Friedman , February 8, 2010

Although the advertising share of revenues from digital and retransmission fees will grow in the coming years, overall ad dollars for TV stations will still be $3 billion less in three years than ad dollars in 2006.

A recent report from SNL Kagan says overall TV station revenues will be $21.7 billion in 2013 -- against the $24.6 billion take in 2006.

Where traditional TV advertising represented 97% of a typical TV station's revenue take, it will be 84% in 2013. Retransmission fees will grow to 9% of an overall TV station's revenue in three years from a 1% share in 2006. Online revenues will rise to 7% in 2013 from 1% in 2006.

In 2009, SNL Kagan said TV station traditional ad revenues sank 20% to $19 billion.

Going forward, the report said even with growing online and retransmission revenues, "there will still be significant bumpiness," especially considering the even and odd years of Olympics and political spending.

The findings factor in the recent landmark decision by the Supreme Court, which gives corporations the freedom to advertise around political issues and candidates.

The report suggests that an upturn in local TV advertising thanks to improved auto advertising spending means total TV station revenues could be up 5% to 7% this year.

Although auto advertising is up by 50% in many markets, SNL Kagan says it is higher in comparison to severely depressed 2009 levels.

Improving retransmission revenue in future years for TV stations could be a negative for online local and national video platforms.

The report says: "Networks receiving retrans fees for their programming are also more apt to restrict the amount of free programming they make available online, in order to protect that revenue stream, allowing stations to keep their importance as local distributors."