An online survey of 371 experts
and 524 Internet users reveal more than three-quarters believe the Web will make people smarter by 2020 -- while21% think the Internet would have the opposite effect and could even lower the IQs of
some who use it all the time. The study, released Friday from the Pew Internet & American Life Project and the Internet Center at Elon University looked at the Internet and its effect on human
intelligence. Most respondents also said they believe the Internet will improve reading and writing by 2020,
Many of those considered experts are scientists, business leaders,
consultants, writers and technology developers, such as technology scholar Nicholas Carr.
In fact, Carr's cover story for the Atlantic Monthly -- entitled "Is Google Making
us Stupid?" -- prompted the study. Carr, whom I had the pleasure of sitting next to during a dinner at a semiconductor conference in 2000, argued in the article that the ease of online searching,
plus the distractions of Web browsing, were possibly limiting his capacity to concentrate, according to Pew. I realize that in the article he made the assumption he's not "thinking the way
[he] used to" because of Google. From my brief three-hour conversation and interaction with him, I can almost assure you that he's pointing the finger at the wrong culprit.
As the Pew
study points out, search engines aren't the problem or the solution. The Internet and search engines just enable people to explore information or hide from it. If they are motivated to learn. they
will use the tool to explore topics. If they are lazy or incapable of concentrating, they will find new ways to be distracted.
Some of those ways people could learn or get distracted are
available in gadgets and mobile applications. About 80% of the experts agreed that "hot gadgets and applications" will emerge "out of the blue" to capture the imaginations of
people in 2020.
Many surveyed said people have had little success in predicting the advent of key technologies and applications, but they do expect major advancements in mobile technology and
devices -- a statement I don't fully agree with. Many innovative technologies are born from the need to spawn a new industry. For example, in 2001 during my talk with Roy Vallee, chief
executive officer for electronic components distributor Avnet, he suggested that mobile would emerge as a trend in the next decade supported by the telecommunications and semiconductor industries.
I don't think, however, that the issues surrounding privacy could have been predicted. Experts participating in the Pew survey were divided on whether anonymous online activity will
diminish, with nearly 40% predicting that anonymous Internet users will have their access sharply reduced.
Marc Rotenberg, executive director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center,
believes the privacy and civil liberties battles during the next decade will focus on demand for identity credentials. "New systems for authentication will bring new problems, as more identity
information will create new opportunities for criminals," he said.