• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, April 16, 2010

Several years ago at a gathering of Fox affiliates, Rupert Murdoch said the network was thriving -- and it was time for the stations to better hold up their end of the bargain. Investing in the lineup surrounding prime time was critical for boosting an overall station performance.

"He asked for a commitment to news and high-quality [syndicated] sitcoms," said Bill Carroll, vice president at the Katz Television Group.

Stations listened to the News Corp. CEO. The irony: if Murdoch wanted to aggressively pursue Conan O'Brien for a late-night spot on Fox, his edict would have made it tough to bring the affiliates around.

Many stations paid handsomely to buy off-net runs of "The Office," which comes with contracts that are hard to break. Stations airing an extra 30 minutes of news in the 11 p.m. hour also had little desire for an O'Brien gambit.

Then, as stations crunched the numbers on potential ad dollars, many determined that Conan -- now at TBS -- wouldn't help them come out ahead. Ratings wouldn't increase enough. Ad units that Fox would offer would not yield more revenues than what they now get from selling news and sitcoms.

Unwilling or unable to easily clear the hour for Conan, executives representing at least nine stations in the top-30 markets told Fox their preference was to maintain the status quo.

Some believed, however, if they had more warning, they may have been able to pull it off. "We told them we were excited by the prospect, but there were just too many business concerns," said Tommy Schenk, general manager of the Fox affiliate in Raleigh-Durham, market 26.

Station managers said Fox listened to their concerns and didn't offer any resistance. Fox does not have contracts where it can program the 11 p.m. hour, and would have had to conduct market-by-market negotiations.

Had News Corp. determined internally that it was dead set on landing Conan, the scenario may have been different. But Fox's owned-and-operated stations, which cover much of the country, seem to have had the same reticence as their affiliates.

"Fox, to its credit, didn't act on a whim," said Tim Ermish, general manager of the Fox station in Salt Lake City. "They didn't get caught up in the Conan buzz. They looked at it and analyzed it. They listened to their affiliates ... and for that we're very happy."

"They were very receptive and noted our comments," said Robert Leider, general manager at the Fox Miami affiliate, WSVN.

In Raleigh-Durham, WRAZ runs "The Office" back to back in the 11 p.m. hour. GM Schenk said he was concerned that dropping the show would bring a tough negotiation with syndicator NBC Universal. NBCU might have pushed for clearance of another show, or a change in the barter arrangement where the two share ad time.

Schenk said WRAZ believed Conan could have raised ratings by about 50% in total audience. But stations would have received fewer spots to sell than with syndicated sitcoms. Plus, the bulk of the Conan spots could have come in the lower-rated second half hour.

Schenk did say the station would have considered airing a Conan show from midnight to 1 a.m., but Fox wanted a consistent coast-to-coast time slot. Starting a half hour before "The Tonight Show" and David Letterman on CBS was preferable.

In San Francisco, the only top-10 market where Fox doesn't own a station, KTVU General Manager Tim McVay said his station "would have been supportive in finding a later clearance for Conan if necessary since we have a very strong relationship with Fox."

But the Cox-owned KTVU preferred to stick with a "Seinfeld" and "Frasier" combination at 11 p.m. because the pair looked to produce higher ratings than Conan, while allowing the station to keep more inventory, McVay wrote in an email.

The Fox affiliate in Miami, owned by Sunbeam Television Corp., is in another of the few large markets where Fox does not own a station.

WSVN is a committed news station, running coverage from 10 to 11:30 p.m. At 11, it goes against the other stations in South Florida and regularly beats them.

"We would never have wanted to stop the 11 o'clock news," said Leider, the general manager.

WSVN offers a re-air of locally produced lifestyle show "Deco Drive" after the 11 p.m. news hour. It's lucrative because it costs less than a syndicated show.

Station owner Local TV, LLC arguably has more influence in talks with Fox than any other affiliate group. It controls the stations in Denver (market 16) and Cleveland (market 18), as well as St. Louis at No. 21. There are four more, including KSTU in Salt Lake City run by Ermish.

Local TV executives met with Fox and expressed strong opposition to Conan at 11. Ermish said the company did a thorough impact study and found the numbers didn't add up when factoring in less ad inventory from Conan, although the show would not cost anything up front. He added that in his market, Conan's "Tonight Show" drew about one-third of "Leno" ratings.

Ermish said the seven Fox stations at Local TV may have been more open to airing Conan at 12 a.m. "That would have been a jump ball," he said. "Some stations would have said yes, and some would have said no. But that would have been a lot more amenable to affiliates."

Brian Brady, who chairs the Fox affiliates board and runs Northwest Broadcasting, said Conan is an "immense talent" and could have helped stations "in a world where exclusivity on programming is diminished."

"There's value to it," he said. "Having said that, there were lots of moving pieces that had to fall into place -- and they just didn't."