• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, June 3, 2010

Don't call it a comeback -- because frankly, it might not be. That summarizes the most recent outlook for newspapers from Moody's Investor Services, which recently released a very cautiously optimistic forecast covering the next couple of years.

According to the report, titled "Revenues Set to Stabilize in 2010-11, But Long-Term Outlook Is Still Negative," Moody's sees newspaper ad revenues declining another 10% to 15% in 2010, but holds hope that they may finally turn around in 2011.

The operative word is "may," as the 2011 forecast is ambiguous, ranging from another 3% decline to a 2% increase.

This modestly optimistic forecast is tempered even more by Moody's warning that newspaper ad revenue trends could turn negative again in 2012 -- and stay there in subsequent years, reflecting continuing long-term structural shifts away from print to digital advertising.

In the short term, any newspaper ad recovery is also highly vulnerable to renewed economic woes, which have already taken a huge bite out of revenues. Even in the best-case scenario, Moody's says newspaper ad revenues will never return to their historic peak in 2005.

Over the last half-decade, total newspaper advertising revenues have declined 44% from a total $49.4 billion in 2005 to $27.6 billion in 2009, according to the Newspaper Association of America.

The decline has continued into 2010, with total first-quarter ad revenues tumbling 46% from $11.1 billion in 2006 to $6 billion this year.