retail

Hot Days = Tepid Sales: Lolling Through July

Macy

Despite some solid gains in stores serving affluent shoppers, most consumers curbed their shopping enthusiasm last month, with major retailers reporting uneven July results.

While results in the early spring months were strong, buoyed by pent-up demand, "we are coming out of that blip and seeing very different levels of growth," says Frank Badillo, senior economist for Kantar Retail. "On one hand, we're seeing the ups and downs of the stock market have a definite impact, and sales at stores like Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom were very strong. On the other, persistent concern about the job market is affecting lower-income shoppers."

Adding to the soft results, he says, is an increasingly competitive promotional environment. "Walmart has been especially so, with increasing emphasis on its rollbacks, and that is creating a higher level of competition among mass retailers." Those trends have combined to "cause a real unevenness in retail results."

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Kantar Retail reports that its index of leading chains rose 2.9% in July. That's below the 3.2% same-store sales gain in June. And the International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks a slightly different set of stores, says its index rose just 2.8%.

Among department stores, Macy's had a good month -- with same-store sales up 7.3% -- as did Kohl's, up 4.1%. But sales at JCPenney slipped 0.6%, and at Dillard's, sales fell 3%. Luxury department stores had a great performance: At Neiman Marcus, sales jumped 12.3%, with Nordstrom gaining 7.6% and Saks up 6.4%.

But while Abercrombie & Fitch rose a healthy 7%, other teen retailers struggled, with Aeropostale's sales up 1%, American Eagle Outfitters flat, and the Buckle -- one of the sector's steadiest performers, even in the worst of the recession -- falling 9.3%.

Still, Badillo expects a respectable performance next month. "For the back-to school season, we will still be making comparisons against negative results from the prior year."

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