• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, September 7, 2010

Android will edge out Apple's iOS to become the third-most pervasive mobile operating system, with a 16.3% share of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2010. In a new report, technology research firm IDC also projects that by 2014 Android will be second only to Symbian among smartphone platforms, boasting a 24.6% share in a more fragmented market.

The predictions for Google's fast-growing Android system are part of a broader forecast by IDC predicting smartphone units shipped globally will grow 55.4% this year to nearly 270 million compared to 173.5 million in 2009.

For the first half of 2010, vendors shipped a total of 119.4 million units or 55.5% more than the 76.8 million in the year-earlier period. Smartphone sales has been buoyed in recent months by the launch of high-profile new models such as the BlackBerry Torch, Evo 4G, iPhone 4 and Droid X.

"The smartphone is the catalyst behind the rebound in the worldwide mobile phone market this year," said Kevin Restivo, a senior research analyst at IDC. "Additional product introductions and an expected flurry of smartphone buying activity in the second half of the year will push the market well above previous expectations."

The surge in smartphone sales will help the overall mobile market rebound this year, with a 14.1% gain after a decline of 2.8% in 2009. The outlook for 2011 is also bullish. Despite continued economic uncertainty, smartphone sales are expected to increase 24.5% next year. However, growth will shrink progressively over the course of IDC's five-year forecast period, with the market forecast to rise only 13.6% in 2014.

The firm expects Symbian -- which is used on most Nokia phones -- to remain the top mobile operating system with a 40.1% share, trailed by the BlackBerry OS at 17.9%, Android at 16.3%, iOS at 14.7%, and Windows Mobile at 6.8%. But in the next four years, IDC anticipates that Symbian and other platforms will lose ground to the proliferating Android system. So when Android hits nearly 25% in 2014, Symbian's share will have declined to 32.9%, BlackBerry, 17.3%, and iOS, 10.9%.

With the forthcoming debut of Windows Phone 7, however, the firm expects Microsoft to reclaim some turf that was lost over the last two years, increasing to a 9.8% share. Ramon Llamas, a senior research analyst in IDC's mobile devices group, suggested that Android would be the biggest question mark in the coming years.

"Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be," he said -- also noting that consumers have compared the Google platform favorably to iOS. Maintaining steady growth is the test for Android as competition tightens among smartphone makers.

IDC emphasized that no one smartphone OS will dominate the mobile landscape the way Microsoft has with Windows on the PC. It believes there's ample room for multiple players in the space. "Shorter replacement cycles and an ample feature phone to smartphone upgrade opportunity means the smartphone OS market will remain fragmented but healthy for the foreseeable future," according to Restivo.