What will be the top mobile
story of the year in 2011? Google and the continued expansion of its Android operating system, according to an annual survey of industry
executives and analysts conducted by mobile research firm Chetan Sharma Consulting.
The sample of 225 mobile "movers and shakers" asked to predict this year's trends was made up one-third
by CXO-level company officers, 23% directors, 20% managers, and 12% each, company vice presidents and industry analysts.
In addition to Android, other major stories in 2011 are expected to center
on 4G deployment and marketing battles over competing next-generation networks, the continued growth of mobile data worldwide, Apple tablets and the iPhone, security and privacy, and the Facebook
mobile platform.
When it comes to the Verizon iPhone, the question isn't if -- but when -- in 2011? More than half (53%) are looking for a first-quarter release of the long-anticipated Verizon
version of the signature Apple device. But views are split over whether it will be this month, next or in March. BusinessWeek last week reported the Verizon iPhone could arrive by Valentine's
Day. The speculation continues.
The survey group was bullish on the prospects for mobile advertising this year, with the vast majority predicting that revenue will more than double or triple over
2010 levels. Executives were likewise optimistic about mobile payments -- which were picked as the breakthrough category for 2011, followed by mobile commerce, advertising, coupons and health.
Within mobile payments, financial services companies such as Visa and MasterCard are expected to be the biggest players, followed by operators, Google, Paypal and phone makers such as Apple, Research
in Motion and Nokia. Verizon Wireless, AT&T and T-Mobile USA in November announced a nationwide mobile payment network dubbed "Isis" allowing users to make in-store purchases via mobile in test
markets beginning this year.
In terms of what type of mobile payment will get the most traction in 2011, it was a virtual dead heat between proximity-based purchasing methods like Near-Field
Communication (NFC) and the selling of non-digital goods through mobile devices.
In the ongoing debate over apps versus the mobile Web, a plurality (about 37%) expect apps will continue to
dominate, but nearly an equal share see the mobile Web playing a bigger role in 2011. On the app side, the prevalent revenue model is expected to be combination of paid and ad-supported content as
in-app advertising contributes a growing portion of income.
While Google and Android will garner most of the attention this year, Microsoft is projected to be the comeback story of the year with
the rollout of its Windows Phone 7 platform across multiple carriers and handsets. Runner-up in that category is Nokia, which late last year hired former Microsoft executive Stephen Elop as CEO to
reverse the Finnish phone giant's ailing fortunes.
And Steve Jobs may have missed out again as Time's Person of the Year in 2010, but he was named "mobile person of the year" in the Chetan
Sharma survey. The Apple CEO finished ahead of "Angry Birds" (not technically a person), Google mobile chief Andy Rubin, and Facebook CEO and Time POY Mark Zuckerberg. Well, that's some consolation.