• by Karlene Lukovitz  @KLmarketdaily, March 15, 2011

Leading fast-casual restaurant chains saw a 17% gain in traffic over the past three years, even as other formats saw the steepest traffic declines in decades, according to The NPD Group market research firm.  

Year-over-year, fast casuals' traffic grew 7% in 2008, 4% in 2009 and 6% last year, NPD's CREST data show. In comparison, QSRs traffic grew 1% in 2008, dipped 3% in 2009, and was flat last year. Traffic for the restaurant industry as a whole was flat in 2008, down 3% in 2009 and down 1% last year.

The traffic growth rate/consumer demand for fast casuals exceeded their 12% unit growth rate over the three years.

NPD defines fast casuals as upscale quick-service concepts that offer more service and higher-quality food than QSRs and have a larger average check size. Chains the firm tracks include Chipotle, Five Guys Burgers, Noodles & Company, Panera and others.

Fast casuals "have done an excellent job of satisfying their customers' needs for quality and service and have built strong customer loyalty as a result," says NPD restaurant industry analyst Bonnie Riggs. "The attributes that define the fast-casual concept -- fresh, quality food and service -- are the reasons that customers give them their highest satisfaction ratings."

The future also looks bright for this format. Incremental traffic for fast casuals will be driven in particular by Generation Z -- those currently 10 to 30 -- the fastest-growing population group (projected to reach 90 million by 2019), according to NPD's "A Look into the Future of Foodservice" report. These formats' traffic will also benefit from the patronage of consumers 55+.

The concept's growth also continues to reflect trading up by QSR customers and trading down by consumers who formerly patronized pricier full-service restaurants, points out Riggs. As a result, other segments of the restaurant industry are increasingly looking to emulate the experience and offerings of the fast casuals, she adds.