• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, April 4, 2011

Local radio enjoyed a modest advertising rebound in 2010, but broadcasters should not count on the recovery to continue at the same pace, according to BIA/Kelsey, which just released its latest overview of the radio business.

Total local radio revenues grew 5.4% from $13.4 billion in 2009 to $14.1 billion in 2010, per BIA/Kelsey, whose figures come in a bit lower than the Radio Advertising Bureau's estimate of $14.2 billion for spot radio for the year.

However, a good part of this increase was due to political spending around last year's midterm elections, which will not show up again until 2012.

Thus, BIA/Kelsey forecasts annual percentage growth rates from 2011-2015 (including online spending) of 3.7%, 4.5%, 3.8%, 4.8%, and 4.7%, respectively. It pegs total ad dollars increasing from $15.1 billion in 2011 to $15.9 billion in 2012; $16.5 billion in 2013; $17.3 billion in 2014; and $18 billion in 2015.

BIA/Kelsey Vice President Mark Fratrik noted that radio "still continues to face a lot of competition in the local and online advertising marketplace. Stations are responding by becoming more aggressive with their digital and online strategies, which are driving measurable revenue."

Radio's online revenues are predicted to grow from $405 million in 2010 to $494 million this year; $569 million in 2011; $638 million in 2012, $705 million in 2014; and $783 million in 2015.

While even modest growth forecasts on the broadcast side are good news after the steep recession in ad spending from 2007-2009, the overall figures also underscore how far radio revenues have to go in making up lost ground.

If BIA/Kelsey's forecasts hold up, by 2015 radio revenues will have inched back to where they were in 2007 -- still falling short of their level in 2006.