• by Steve McClellan , August 1, 2011

With increasing jitters about the debt crises here and in Europe, and their impact on the world economy, another ad industry group has downgraded its prediction for global ad spending growth in 2011.

London-based WARC now says global spending will climb just 3.2% versus the more optimistic 4.6% it had predicted just a few months ago. If the new estimate proves correct, it would amount to less than half the average annual worldwide spending growth that occurred between 1981 and 2009 (6.8%), per the organization.

WARC did not provide a total dollar figure, but the revision follows similar downgrades from agencies that did offer dollar estimates as well as percentage downgrades.

Last month, Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia reduced its spending growth outlook by one-tenth of a point, to 4.1% or $471 billion. Also in July, WPP's GroupM downgraded its forecast, knocking a full percentage point off its estimate -- from 5.8% to 4.8% -- to $506 billion.

ZO cited some of the same concerns as WARC -- debt worries, commodity price hikes and a general sense that the economy will take more time to fully recover than previously anticipated.

Suzy Young, WARC's data editor, stated that "global economic conditions remain unsettled and this is making marketers cautious, particularly in Western Europe, Japan and the U.S."

At present, spending in Japan -- still recovering from a tsunami that devastated parts of the country -- will be one of the most heavily impacted countries with a 3.5% spending decline, WARC said. Debt-laden Italy is also expected to post a spending decline, of around 3%.

As a group, emerging markets would continue to grow faster than established Western ad economies. Russia, India and China are expected to post double-digit spending gains this year, the group said.

WARC did not provide U.S. numbers in its latest revision. But last month, ZO said U.S. would grow a modest 2.1% to about $154 billion, down four-tenths of a percent from its earlier prediction. GroupM's latest U.S. spending estimate for this year: up 3.8% to $148 billion.

The researcher also took a shot at predicting next year's spending growth, which it now estimates will be up 5.7% at current prices. Helping support spending levels next year will be the 2012 Olympics in London and political campaigns in the U.S.