Worldwide App Downloads Top 18B

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The taste for mobile apps is not leveling as smartphone penetration maintains its upward trajectory and finds new international markets.  

According to Ovum, downloads will surpass 18 billion by the end of this year, an increase of 144% from the 7.4 billion in downloads worldwide just a year ago. The growth path is on track to surpass 45 billion in 2016.

Given the velocity of Android's expanding market share, it is not surprising that the Google mobile OS will surpass Apple in raw downloads this year. Ovum is crediting Android with 8.1 billion app downloads and iOS with over 6 billion.

Ovum sees Android dominance growing, with 21.8 billion app downloads by 2016 vs. 11.6 billion for Apple. In the OS wars, Microsoft Windows is expected to overtake RIM BlackBerry as the third-largest source of apps by 2015, Ovum says.

Raw download numbers only tell part of the story, of course. iOS apps continue to boast high levels of engagement, as well as user willingness to pay. Despite the greater number of downloads on the Android platform, Apple apps will still render $2.86 billion in revenues in 2016, compared to $1.5 billion for Android.

Overall, and across all platforms, Ovum expects revenue from paid apps to total $7.7 billion in 2016, more than double the $3.7 billion it expects from app sales this year.

Although users are downloading apps in torrents, there are limits. Ovum analysts warn that familiarity breeds discrimination. Charging more than $5 for an app is becoming a much tougher sell as people become accustomed to superior functionality and low prices.

While many mobile analysts debate whether the rise of HTML5 functionality will doom the app model and move much of its functionality to a mobile Web cloud, Ovum suggests we may see both formats converge in a single shopping experience.

"App stores offer a familiar environment for a consumer to discover, download and purchase apps," says Nick Dillon, devices analyst for the company. "We anticipate that the majority of app stores will list a mix of both HTML5 and native applications in their catalogs in the future."

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