• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, December 1, 2011

For years, Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen has offered keen insight on the media sector, so when she goes guru, it’s one of those clichéd E.F. Hutton situations.

On Thursday, she weighed in on topics such as the value of content (huge); News Corp. after “News of the World” (very promising); Comcast's acquisition of NBCUniversal (Comcast "stole" it); and the future of addressable advertising (developing way too slowly).

How much credence should be placed in predictions she offers? Looking back on assessments she made in 2001 while sitting across from Charlie Rose, a good bit. She had some misses, but some darn good hits.

Speaking with Rose she suggested once Comcast closed its deal to acquire the AT&T Broadband cable systems, the company might want to move into another arena.

“Over time, (it) may become a much bigger company in other industries as well -- more in the programming area,” she said.

Three years later, Comcast made an unsuccessful bid for Disney. Eight years later, it had a deal for NBCUniversal.

In 2001, Reif Cohen touted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and his top management. Fast forward to Thursday and her appearance at a Broadcasting & Cable event, she suggested Comcast may have fleeced GE to grab NBCU.

Comcast “stole” it, she said. Though, she seemed to catch herself and said “the structure of the deal was phenomenal” for it. Among the potential benefits are carriage fees at the NBC network and a stronger Telemundo, while even one hit NBC show could become a $1 billion franchise.

Switching to News Corp., she said it is one of four companies she is bullish on – also Comcast, CBS and Discovery. But isn't News Corp. dealing with a massive hacking scandal in Britain that brought down "News of the World" and halted a BSkyB deal?

No worry, the company may emerge even stronger, she said, in large part because the imbroglio is likely to boost the influence of COO Chase Carey. “A phenomenal operator,” Reif Cohen said.

Back in 2001, she was also bullish on News Corp. saying Rupert Murdoch had done "an amazing job." And it has had an impressive decade with a dominant Fox News, strong cable channels and making the right call on MySpace for a while.

Reif Cohen didn’t exactly score with Charlie Rose with her take on AOL Time Warner’s prospects. “A great stock in 2002 and beyond,” she said. 

Also back then, she “distribution is as important content.” Content seems to have emerged in the pole position, which she spoke about effusively Thursday. With Netflix and international markets and cable syndication, the lifetime value of a hit show can be $1 billion. 

“The value of hit programming has gone up 50% over the last five years,” she said. Serialized dramas haven't traditionally had huge worth downstream,  but “all of a sudden a show like 'Glee' has a big afterlife," she said.

Looking ahead Thursday to what’s next in digital distribution, Reif Cohen didn’t really harbor a guess. (Maybe because she didn’t want her predictions archived on the Web like the '01 Charlie Rose episode.)

She said the direction Amazon, Blockbuster and Google move in remains a compelling question: “What do they do, what is their model?”

On Google’s new initiative to bring original content to YouTube, she seemed dubious: “It’s not really a television- or cable-network killer and it seems like sort of a scatter shot approach.”

On cable versus satellite operators, Reif Cohen said in both 2001 and 2011 cable has the advantage because it can bundle video, broadband and phone services. “Our concern is (satellite) is a one-trick pony in a bundled world,” she said Tuesday.

Merrill Lynch downgraded the satellite sector recently, though DirecTV has been gaining subscribers as cable operators have been losing them.

On addressable advertising, Reif Cohen expressed some frustration at its slow development. She has been a long-time advocate of its potential and at one point suggested it could be a $14 billion market over a five-year period.

Cablevision and Comcast have launched initiatives, but Comcast could be a major spark plug with its massive cable system coupled with NBCU content.

“If they focus on it, it can be the catalyst for the industry,” she said.

Check back in 2021.